American Airlines Group Inc.

NasdaqGS:AAL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.1b

American Airlines Group Valuation

Is AAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AAL ($16.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($46.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAL?

Key metric: As AAL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AAL. This is calculated by dividing AAL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AAL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.3x
EarningsUS$275.00m
Market CapUS$11.09b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.1x
ALK Alaska Air Group
26x39.5%US$8.4b
UAL United Airlines Holdings
11.6x12.1%US$32.0b
CPA Copa Holdings
5.8x6.8%US$3.7b
SKYW SkyWest
16.9x15.8%US$4.1b
AAL American Airlines Group
40.3x39.8%US$11.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the peer average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AAL 40.3xIndustry Avg. 9.5xNo. of Companies9PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.3x
Fair PE Ratio27.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$16.88
US$17.44
+3.3%
23.5%US$24.00US$12.00n/a21
Dec ’25US$14.52
US$14.51
-0.06%
19.4%US$20.00US$10.00n/a20
Nov ’25US$13.54
US$13.68
+1.0%
21.0%US$20.00US$10.00n/a18
Oct ’25US$10.90
US$11.59
+6.4%
21.1%US$18.00US$7.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$10.62
US$11.76
+10.7%
20.5%US$18.00US$7.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$10.14
US$11.76
+16.0%
20.5%US$18.00US$7.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$11.04
US$14.96
+35.5%
18.8%US$21.00US$10.78n/a18
Jun ’25US$11.50
US$15.62
+35.8%
17.7%US$21.00US$11.00n/a17
May ’25US$13.58
US$17.54
+29.1%
18.0%US$24.00US$12.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$15.41
US$17.41
+12.9%
18.2%US$23.00US$12.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$15.66
US$17.18
+9.7%
19.6%US$23.00US$12.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$14.34
US$16.79
+17.1%
20.6%US$23.00US$12.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$13.74
US$14.29
+4.0%
23.1%US$20.00US$8.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$13.02
US$14.24
+9.3%
22.9%US$20.00US$8.00US$14.5217
Nov ’24US$11.14
US$14.76
+32.5%
21.8%US$20.00US$8.00US$13.5417
Oct ’24US$12.81
US$17.11
+33.6%
27.8%US$29.00US$9.00US$10.9016
Sep ’24US$14.68
US$18.07
+23.1%
24.4%US$29.00US$11.00US$10.6216
Aug ’24US$16.23
US$19.41
+19.6%
22.1%US$29.00US$11.00US$10.1417
Jul ’24US$17.94
US$18.20
+1.4%
25.9%US$29.00US$11.00US$11.0417
Jun ’24US$14.70
US$18.36
+24.9%
25.8%US$29.00US$9.50US$11.5017
May ’24US$13.89
US$17.69
+27.3%
23.9%US$26.00US$9.50US$13.5816
Apr ’24US$14.75
US$17.97
+21.8%
23.7%US$26.00US$8.00US$15.4116
Mar ’24US$16.03
US$17.47
+9.0%
25.1%US$26.00US$8.00US$15.6617
Feb ’24US$16.69
US$17.24
+3.3%
25.9%US$26.00US$8.00US$14.3417
Jan ’24US$12.72
US$15.85
+24.6%
30.2%US$26.00US$7.00US$13.7417
Dec ’23US$13.98
US$16.53
+18.2%
32.8%US$26.00US$7.00US$13.0216

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

American Airlines Group Inc. is covered by 50 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
Lindsay BettiolAtlantic Equities LLP
Fred LowranceAvondale Partners