American Airlines Group Inc.

NasdaqGS:AAL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.8b

American Airlines Group Valuation

Is AAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AAL ($15.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($40.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AAL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.7x
PEG Ratio0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
UAL United Airlines Holdings
5.9x7.7%US$15.5b
LUV Southwest Airlines
37.6x24.2%US$17.5b
ALK Alaska Air Group
22.5x37.8%US$5.3b
CPA Copa Holdings
8.4x15.2%US$4.3b
AAL American Airlines Group
12.2x25.9%US$10.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (8.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.2x
Fair PE Ratio21x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.30
US$17.41
+13.8%
18.2%US$23.00US$12.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$15.66
US$17.18
+9.7%
19.6%US$23.00US$12.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$14.34
US$16.79
+17.1%
20.6%US$23.00US$12.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$13.74
US$14.29
+4.0%
23.1%US$20.00US$8.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$13.02
US$14.24
+9.3%
22.9%US$20.00US$8.00n/a17
Nov ’24US$11.14
US$14.76
+32.5%
21.8%US$20.00US$8.00n/a17
Oct ’24US$12.81
US$17.11
+33.6%
27.8%US$29.00US$9.00n/a16
Sep ’24US$14.68
US$18.07
+23.1%
24.4%US$29.00US$11.00n/a16
Aug ’24US$16.23
US$19.41
+19.6%
22.1%US$29.00US$11.00n/a17
Jul ’24US$17.94
US$18.20
+1.4%
25.9%US$29.00US$11.00n/a17
Jun ’24US$14.70
US$18.36
+24.9%
25.8%US$29.00US$9.50n/a17
May ’24US$13.89
US$17.69
+27.3%
23.9%US$26.00US$9.50n/a16
Apr ’24US$14.75
US$17.97
+21.8%
23.7%US$26.00US$8.00n/a16
Mar ’24US$16.03
US$17.47
+9.0%
25.1%US$26.00US$8.00US$15.6617
Feb ’24US$16.69
US$17.24
+3.3%
25.9%US$26.00US$8.00US$14.3417
Jan ’24US$12.72
US$15.85
+24.6%
30.2%US$26.00US$7.00US$13.7417
Dec ’23US$13.98
US$16.53
+18.2%
32.8%US$26.00US$7.00US$13.0216
Nov ’23US$14.11
US$16.41
+16.3%
33.5%US$26.00US$7.00US$11.1416
Oct ’23US$12.04
US$17.19
+42.8%
33.3%US$28.00US$8.00US$12.8116
Sep ’23US$12.93
US$17.39
+34.5%
32.8%US$28.00US$8.00US$14.6817
Aug ’23US$14.28
US$17.60
+23.2%
33.2%US$28.00US$8.00US$16.2316
Jul ’23US$13.13
US$19.41
+47.8%
24.9%US$28.00US$9.00US$17.9416
Jun ’23US$17.29
US$19.56
+13.1%
22.4%US$26.00US$9.00US$14.7019
May ’23US$18.77
US$19.58
+4.3%
23.0%US$26.00US$9.00US$13.8918
Apr ’23US$18.24
US$17.87
-2.0%
25.8%US$28.00US$8.00US$14.7518
Mar ’23US$16.29
US$19.07
+17.1%
24.1%US$28.00US$8.00US$16.0319

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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