Saia, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Saia, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$788m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 33%, coming in at just US$1.86 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Saia after the latest results.

We've discovered 3 warning signs about Saia. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, Saia's 18 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$3.30b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 18% to US$9.90 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.36 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Saia

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 29% to US$301. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Saia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$438 and the most bearish at US$250 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Saia's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Saia is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Saia. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Saia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Saia has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.