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ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line NasdaqGS:ODFL Stock Report

Last Price

US$297.04

Market Cap

US$33.2b

7D

-5.5%

1Y

5.1%

Updated

19 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
ODFL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation0/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

ODFL Stock Overview

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America.

Old Dominion Freight Line Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Old Dominion Freight Line
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$297.04
52 Week HighUS$373.58
52 Week LowUS$231.31
Beta1.04
1 Month Change7.38%
3 Month Change22.15%
1 Year Change5.14%
3 Year Change180.35%
5 Year Change366.95%
Change since IPO25,926.71%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 18
Investors Should Be Encouraged By Old Dominion Freight Line's (NASDAQ:ODFL) Returns On Capital

Investors Should Be Encouraged By Old Dominion Freight Line's (NASDAQ:ODFL) Returns On Capital

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Firstly, we'd want to...

Aug 14

Old Dominion Freight Line: Short-Term Risk And Pricey Valuations Keep Us On The Sidelines

Old Dominion Freight Line is facing short-term macro headwinds. Experienced management with a good past track record is expected to manage downturn well and continue gaining market share in the longer term. However, the valuation is full and there are better opportunities elsewhere. Investment Thesis Old Dominion (ODFL) has weak short-term growth prospects as the volumes are softening with a slowing economy and there are concerns about impending recession. Consumer confidence is declining and so is the industrial PMI. There are also short-term concerns due to delays in the delivery of new equipment. However, the company has a good track record of delivering volume growth over the last decade and has gained market share across all the US regions due to its focus on offering valuable services, like on-time delivery and minimal cargo damage at fair prices, to its customers. So, I am optimistic about the longer-term prospects. The company’s valuation at 26.52x current year P/E looks expensive though and, hence, I have a neutral rating on the stock. ODFL Q2 2022 Earnings Highlights The company reported consolidated revenue of $1.67 billion, up ~26.4% y/y and almost in line with the consensus estimate of $1.64 billion. The consolidated operating margin improved by ~280 bps y/y to ~30.5%. Diluted EPS grew by ~42.9% y/y to $3.3, beating consensus estimates by 15 cents. The improvement in the revenue was primarily due to a solid ~22.6% rise in revenue per hundredweight and growth in volumes. Shipments rose by ~2.75% y/y to 3.4 million and tonnage rose by ~2.85% y/y to 2.67 million. As expected, the year-over-year volume growth softened compared to previous quarters due to the difficult macro environment. The growth in yield was due to an increase in fuel surcharge and pricing strategy. Excluding fuel surcharge, revenue per hundredweight increased by ~9.3% y/y. The operating margin primarily benefited from lower labour costs and purchased transportation costs, which were partially offset by higher fuel costs. ODFL Key Metrics (Quarterly) (Company Data, GS Analytics Research) ODFL Key Metrics (Annual) (Company Data, GS Analytics Research) Revenue Growth Prospects I expect the LTL industry to face weakness in the short term, both in volumes and yields, with a weak macro environment coupled with difficult comparisons from the last couple of years. Approximately 55-60% of ODFL’s revenue comes from the industrial end market and 25-30% of revenue from the retail end market. There has been good demand from both industrial and retail customers in recent quarters, but the trend seems to be reversing. Consumer sentiment is at the lowest level in the last twelve months due to record inflation levels, which is impacting retail demand. In addition, U.S. retail inventory growth is also moderating after a robust increase later last year and early this year. Industrial growth is also expected to remain sluggish as the leading indicator, the U.S. manufacturing PMI index has been trending downwards for the last year. While it is still above 50 which indicates expansion, the rate of growth is likely to slow meaningfully. Apart from a weak macro environment, the company is facing a delay in delivery of the new equipment, and it may result in missed revenue opportunities in seasonal demand until all of the new equipment is delivered. Despite these short-term concerns, I am optimistic about ODFL’s long-term growth prospects. The company is concentrating on the growth markets like the next day and 2nd-day shipping, which is getting reflected in its shipment mix. Approximately 70% of shipments delivered by the company are next-day and 2nd-day. ODFL’s expedited services provide its customers with customized solutions like Guaranteed, On-Demand shipping, and Must Arrive By Date, which help its retail customers meet increasingly complex demands. Along with this, the company has been able to contain cargo damage, which has contributed to a very low cargo claim ratio of 0.2% in 2022. The use of 28-foot trailers permits it to transport freight directly from origin to destination with minimal unloading and reloading, which reduces its exposure to cargo damage. Focusing on these kinds of quality services at fair prices should help it to increase its market share. In the past decade, the company has gained market share across all regions of the U.S. ODFL Market Share Gains (Company Presentation) In addition, the experienced management of ODFL has a good past performance track record in managing economic downturns. The management’s decision to invest in building capacity during the period of 2011-2021 has aided the company's volume growth. The company increased the number of service centres from 216 in 2011 to 251 in 2021, which helped it meet the increasing demand for shipments. This investment, coupled with its pricing strategy to offer quality services at reasonable prices, has helped the company achieve a ~79% increase in daily volume compared to 2011, which is a significant outperformance relative to its peers. The company is continuing to focus on building capacity to capture volume growth in the long term. At present, the company has an excess capacity of 15-20%. Management is targeting to increase it to 25% in order to stay ahead of expected volume growth and gain market share. Excess capacity makes it easier to gain market share and while it means the company has to bear some extra costs in the near term when the capacity is idle, this strategy has been very successfully used by the company in the past decade. Operating margin outlook In the short term, there are multiple factors that are likely to have a negative impact on the operating margin. First is a weak near-term demand outlook as discussed above, which can impact the company’s operating margin as volume leverage plays a crucial role in the industry. In addition, costs like miscellaneous costs and general supplies and expenses have been lower than the long-term average in recent quarters and could return to normalized levels in upcoming quarters due to their nature. Miscellaneous expenses generally remain at 0.5% of total revenues, which was 0.3% of total revenues in Q2 2022. General supplies and expenses, which accounted for 2.3% of total revenues in the last quarter, were also favourable compared to the long-term trend. Management expects a ~100-150 bps headwind in the upcoming quarters due to an increase in these expenses to a more normalized level.

Jul 27

Old Dominion Freight Line GAAP EPS of $3.30 beats by $0.15, revenue of $1.67B beats by $10M

Old Dominion Freight Line press release (NASDAQ:ODFL): Q2 GAAP EPS of $3.30 beats by $0.15. Revenue of $1.67B (+26.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M. Operating Ratio Improves to 69.5%. Shares +0.33% PM.

Shareholder Returns

ODFLUS TransportationUS Market
7D-5.5%-1.5%1.4%
1Y5.1%-12.5%-8.4%

Return vs Industry: ODFL exceeded the US Transportation industry which returned -12.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ODFL exceeded the US Market which returned -8.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ODFL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ODFL volatility
ODFL Average Weekly Movement5.5%
Transportation Industry Average Movement7.5%
Market Average Movement7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: ODFL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ODFL's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
193424,586Greg Gantthttps://www.odfl.com

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting.

Old Dominion Freight Line Fundamentals Summary

How do Old Dominion Freight Line's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ODFL fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$33.20b
Earnings (TTM)US$1.24b
Revenue (TTM)US$5.98b

26.7x

P/E Ratio

5.6x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ODFL income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$5.98b
Cost of RevenueUS$3.67b
Gross ProfitUS$2.30b
Other ExpensesUS$1.06b
EarningsUS$1.24b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)11.11
Gross Margin38.57%
Net Profit Margin20.77%
Debt/Equity Ratio2.8%

How did ODFL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.4%

Current Dividend Yield

9%

Payout Ratio

Does ODFL pay a reliable dividends?

See ODFL dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy ODFL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Old Dominion Freight Line dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateSep 06 2022
Dividend Pay DateSep 21 2022
Days until Ex dividend17 days
Days until Dividend pay date32 days

Does ODFL pay a reliable dividends?

See ODFL dividend history and benchmarks
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ODFL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ODFL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ODFL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA17x
PEG Ratio4.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ODFL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ODFL PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for ODFL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.2x
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services
20.9x3.0%US$19.7b
UHAL AMERCO
10.2xn/aUS$11.3b
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
10x-3.3%US$8.9b
CAR Avis Budget Group
3.5x-50.0%US$8.2b
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line
26.7x5.9%US$33.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ODFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the peer average (11.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ODFL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ODFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (10.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ODFL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ODFL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.7x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ODFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ODFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ODFL ($297.04) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($256.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ODFL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is Old Dominion Freight Line forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


5.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ODFL's forecast earnings growth (5.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ODFL's earnings (5.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ODFL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ODFL's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ODFL's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ODFL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.5%)


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Past Performance

How has Old Dominion Freight Line performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


20.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ODFL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ODFL's current net profit margins (20.8%) are higher than last year (18.8%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ODFL's earnings have grown by 20% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ODFL's earnings growth over the past year (44.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (20% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ODFL earnings growth over the past year (44.2%) underperformed the Transportation industry 62.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: ODFL's Return on Equity (34.9%) is considered high.


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Financial Health

How is Old Dominion Freight Line's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ODFL's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($628.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: ODFL's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its long term liabilities ($609.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ODFL has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: ODFL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 4.6% to 2.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ODFL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (1521.1%).

Interest Coverage: ODFL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (12191.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Old Dominion Freight Line current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


0.40%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

TodayAug 20 2022Ex Dividend DateSep 06 2022Dividend Pay DateSep 21 202215 days from Ex DividendBuy in the next 17 days to receive the upcoming dividend

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ODFL's dividend (0.4%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).

High Dividend: ODFL's dividend (0.4%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.97%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ODFL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: ODFL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: ODFL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: ODFL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Greg Gantt (66 yo)

7.25yrs

Tenure

US$10,577,833

Compensation

Mr. Greg C. Gantt has been the Chief Executive Officer of Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. since May 16, 2018 and has been its President since May 2015. Mr. Gantt served as Executive Vice President of Old D...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Greg's total compensation ($USD10.58M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.86M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Greg's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ODFL's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: ODFL's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ODFL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
  • Ticker: ODFL
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1934
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Implied Market Cap: US$33.201b
  • Shares outstanding: 111.77m
  • Website: https://www.odfl.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
  • 500 Old Dominion Way
  • Thomasville
  • North Carolina
  • 27360
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/19 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/19 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.