Does CSX Stock Still Have Room to Run After 12% Gain in 2025?

Thinking about whether to buy, sell, or simply hold your CSX shares? You are not alone. With the stock closing at $36.01 and posting a 12.0% gain year-to-date, investors are rightfully wondering what is next. Over the last month alone, CSX jumped 10.7%, and if you zoom out, the stock is up more than 47% over five years. That kind of performance is tough to ignore, especially as the transportation and logistics industries become even more essential to keeping the economy humming.

Much of this recent climb can be traced to ongoing strength across the rail sector, as continued supply chain normalization and infrastructure spending have shifted sentiment in CSX’s favor. It is not just a short-term bump either. Market watchers are recalibrating how they view US railroads after seeing resilience through economic uncertainty, and that means greater optimism for CSX’s role moving forward.

But when it comes to deciding if now is the right time to get in, or to increase your stake, valuation matters. Our latest scorecard gives CSX a value score of just 1 out of 6, indicating the stock may not be broadly undervalued by traditional metrics. Still, not all valuation models catch the full story. In the next section, we will break down how the main approaches stack up for CSX, and why there might be a smarter way to cut through all the noise when judging what this company is really worth.

CSX scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: CSX Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today's value. This approach essentially asks, "What are all the dollars CSX is expected to generate in the future worth in today's terms?"

For CSX, the latest twelve months' Free Cash Flow (FCF) comes in at approximately $2.51 billion. Looking out over the next several years, analysts expect this figure to keep climbing, reaching an estimated $3.88 billion by 2029. While these multi-year forecasts rely on both analyst estimates and model projections, Simply Wall St extrapolates further into the next decade. By 2035, FCF is projected to reach nearly $4.9 billion, all in US dollars.

Based on this stream of growing cash flows, the DCF model calculates an intrinsic value of $34.95 per share. With CSX's current share price at $36.01, the model implies the stock is about 3.0% overvalued by this method. That margin is quite slim and well within the range of fair value, considering the assumptions involved.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for CSX.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out CSX's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: CSX Price vs Earnings (PE) Ratio

For profitable companies like CSX, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular valuation metric because it links the company’s share price with its underlying earnings power. It is especially useful for judging if investors are paying a fair price per dollar of profit. However, what counts as a "normal" PE is not set in stone. Factors such as expected earnings growth and risk play a significant role. Higher growth or lower risk often justifies a higher PE, while slower growth or more uncertainty should bring it down.

CSX currently trades at a PE ratio of 21.6x. This figure is slightly above the average for its direct peers, which sits at 20.1x, but below the broader Transportation industry average of 24.1x. By these traditional benchmarks, CSX appears reasonably priced within its sector, though not a value outlier.

To get a tailored perspective, it is important to look at the proprietary “Fair Ratio” developed by Simply Wall St. This Fair Ratio, currently calculated at 17.8x for CSX, takes a much deeper dive by considering company-specific factors such as CSX’s historical and expected earnings growth, its profit margins, sector, market cap, and unique risk profile. This approach provides a more individualized benchmark than simple peer or industry averages.

With CSX’s actual PE ratio just above its Fair Ratio, the stock appears slightly overvalued from this perspective. However, because the difference between the two is not significant, it suggests CSX stock is valued about right overall.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your CSX Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is simply your own story about a company, built from how you view its future revenue growth, earnings, profit margins, and risks. It connects the dots between a company's outlook, your forecast for its financials, and the fair value you would assign. This makes your investment decision more personal and informed.

Narratives are easy to create and available right on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share and compare perspectives. With a Narrative, you can see at a glance whether your story says CSX is undervalued or overpriced by comparing your Fair Value estimate to the current market price. Narratives also update dynamically as new data comes in, such as news or earnings reports, so you can adjust your view over time.

For example, some investors see CSX benefiting from major infrastructure projects and stronger industrial demand, setting their Fair Value as high as $44 per share. Others are wary of operational risks and set their estimate at just $27. Narratives let you weigh both the optimistic and cautious stories alongside your outlook, enabling you to make decisions rooted in your own reasoning rather than relying only on traditional ratios or consensus targets.

Do you think there's more to the story for CSX? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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