Why Clear Secure (YOU) Is Up 11.3% After Landing a Pivotal Medicare.gov Identity Platform Deal

• Earlier this month, CLEAR announced a contract with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to integrate its CLEAR1 identity platform into Medicare.gov from early 2026, while also rolling out CLEAR ID, a free mobile digital ID for TSA checkpoints, and expanding healthcare partnerships with Welldoc and Sharecare.
• Together, these moves extend CLEAR’s identity technology well beyond airports, embedding it into federal healthcare infrastructure and consumer health apps, which could deepen its role as a core verification layer across everyday services.
• We’ll now examine how the CMS Medicare.gov contract could reshape Clear Secure’s investment narrative and long-term identity platform ambitions.

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Clear Secure Investment Narrative Recap

To own Clear Secure, you need to believe that its identity platform can grow from an airport convenience into critical infrastructure for both travel and healthcare. The CMS Medicare.gov contract reinforces that thesis and may add a new growth leg alongside the more immediate catalyst of renewing key credit card partnerships on healthy terms, while the biggest near term risk remains any setback or less favorable outcome in those renegotiations.

Among the recent announcements, the CMS agreement to embed CLEAR1 into Medicare.gov from early 2026 stands out as most relevant. It directly supports the catalyst of expanding CLEAR1 beyond airports into high trust, high volume environments, which could help diversify the business away from purely travel linked revenue at the same time that investors are watching the American Express renewal story unfold.

Yet while CMS could broaden CLEAR’s reach, investors should also be aware of the risk that credit card partnership terms remain economically unfavorable and...

Read the full narrative on Clear Secure (it's free!)

Clear Secure's narrative projects $1.1 billion revenue and $149.9 million earnings by 2028. This implies 9.7% yearly revenue growth and a $27.0 million earnings decrease from $176.9 million today.

Uncover how Clear Secure's forecasts yield a $38.38 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Clear Secure span roughly US$20 to US$70 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those opinions against the growing importance of CLEAR1 in healthcare, it is worth considering how success or setbacks in these identity initiatives could influence the company’s longer term earnings power.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Clear Secure - why the stock might be worth 49% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Clear Secure Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Clear Secure research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Clear Secure research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Clear Secure's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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