Tenable (TENB): Evaluating Valuation After New GSA OneGov Federal Cloud Security Agreement Announcement

Tenable Holdings (TENB) just locked in a OneGov agreement with the U.S. General Services Administration, giving federal agencies including the Department of Defense discounted access to its FedRAMP authorized cloud security platform through early 2027.

See our latest analysis for Tenable Holdings.

Even with this GSA agreement underscoring Tenable’s role in federal cloud security, the stock’s momentum has been weak. A steep year to date share price return decline and a similarly negative one year total shareholder return suggest sentiment is still cautious despite improving fundamentals.

If this kind of government focused growth story appeals to you, it could be worth exploring other cybersecurity and software names via high growth tech and AI stocks as potential complementary opportunities.

With shares down sharply over the past year but analysts still seeing nearly 45 percent upside, is Tenable quietly slipping into undervalued territory, or is the market already discounting its future federal cloud growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 30.7% Undervalued

Compared to Tenable Holdings' last close at $26.28, the most followed narrative pegs fair value much higher and frames today’s price as a discount.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $39.95 for Tenable Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $45.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $32.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, a sharp profit swing, and an unusually rich future earnings multiple can still justify this higher value? Unpack the full narrative to see which cash flow path and margin ramp the consensus is quietly baking in, and why the discount rate has barely moved even as sentiment has.

Result: Fair Value of $37.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside case could falter if federal contract growth slows or hyperscale competitors bundle security tools aggressively, which could pressure Tenable's pricing and margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Tenable Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Tenable Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete view in minutes using Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Tenable Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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