Pagaya Technologies Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
Pagaya Technologies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 35.9% and 12.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 32.3% in 3 years.
Key information
35.9%
Earnings growth rate
26.08%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 19.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 12.3% |
| Future return on equity | 32.33% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 11 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
New Narrative • May 09
PGY may go up in next 6-12 months.
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) — Investment Thesis Pagaya Technologies is not a software company. This distinction is the foundation of the entire investment case and is widely misunderstood by the market.
Narrative Update • May 02
PGY: Execution On Platform Relationships Will Support 2026 Earnings Guidance Upside Potential
Narrative update on Pagaya Technologies Pagaya Technologies' consensus analyst price target has been revised lower by multiple firms, with reductions such as $5, $7, $8, $13 and $15. Analysts are reassessing assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels while maintaining a fair value estimate of $33.00.
Narrative Update • Apr 18
PGY: Long Term Earnings Guidance Will Support Bullish Upside Thesis
Analysts have reduced their average price targets on Pagaya Technologies by $11.73 to $26.45, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, discount rates and profit expectations following a series of recent target cuts alongside one bullish initiation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a cluster of target reductions for Pagaya Technologies alongside one new bullish initiation, giving you a mixed but useful read on how the Street is recalibrating expectations around growth, profitability and risk.Narrative Update • Apr 03
PGY: Execution On Platform Relationships Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Pagaya Technologies' updated analyst price target has been reduced by $7 to $33, as several firms reassessed their views on the stock. Analysts cited recent sector research, while one new bullish initiation at Freedom Capital highlights ongoing interest in the name.
Narrative Update • Mar 20
PGY: Reset Expectations And 2026 Guidance Will Support A Rebound
Pagaya Technologies' analyst price targets have been reset lower, with the fair value estimate moving from $27.00 to $20.00 as analysts factor in updated assumptions on required returns, growth, margins and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Pagaya Technologies has featured a series of lower price targets, with multiple bearish analysts trimming their fair value estimates by mid single digit to mid teens dollar amounts.Narrative Update • Mar 05
PGY: Reset Risk Assumptions And New Partnership Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update: Pagaya Technologies The consolidated analyst price target for Pagaya Technologies has been reduced by a double digit dollar amount, as several firms cut their targets by $5 to $15 while emphasizing updated risk assumptions alongside steady model inputs for fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Pagaya Technologies has centered on adjustments to price targets, with several firms revising their numbers while keeping core views on fair value drivers largely intact.Narrative Update • Feb 19
PGY: Reset Expectations And New Partnership Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have cut their average price target for Pagaya Technologies from $54.00 to $33.00, citing more cautious assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, and profit margin following a series of recent target reductions across the Street research community. Analyst Commentary Recent research has centered on recalibrating Pagaya Technologies price targets, with multiple firms revisiting their assumptions on fair value, discount rates, revenue growth, and margins.Analysis Article • Feb 09
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:PGY) 28% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Revenues
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow...Narrative Update • Feb 05
PGY: Raised Earnings Outlook And New Partnership Will Support Bullish Thesis
Narrative Update on Pagaya Technologies Analysts have trimmed their price target on Pagaya Technologies from about $40.50 to roughly $38.18, citing updated views on fair value, a higher discount rate, slightly softer revenue growth and margin expectations, and a higher future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Analysts reviewing Pagaya Technologies have shared a mix of optimism and caution as they reassess fair value, execution risks, and the revised P/E framework behind the updated target price near US$38.18.Seeking Alpha • Dec 19
Pagaya's Selloff Looks Detached From Reality
Summary I see Pagaya Technologies' selloff as a credit-fear overreaction, not a fundamentals-driven mispricing. PGY’s Q3 2025 results showed $350M revenue (+36% YoY), improved margins, and its third consecutive GAAP net income quarter. Operating leverage is real: adjusted EBITDA hit $107M (30.6% margin vs. 21.8% prior), and GAAP net income was +$23M, third straight profitable quarter. Diversification reduces single-lane risk: POS and auto are ~32% of volume versus 9% last year, while partner stickiness improves via multi-product adoption. Valuation looks compressed at ~7.1x 2025 EPS and <6.9x 2026; my scenario yields a $51 target (~131% upside), but onboarding/delinquency risks remain. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Oct 16
Positive Sentiment Still Eludes Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY) Following 29% Share Price Slump
The Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) share price has softened a substantial 29% over the previous 30 days...Analysis Article • Aug 31
The Market Lifts Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY) Shares 27% But It Can Do More
Despite an already strong run, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27...Narrative Update • Aug 10
Advanced AI Underwriting And Embedded Finance Will Open Markets
Analysts have raised their price target for Pagaya Technologies to $38.00, citing robust EBITDA margins driven by strong unit economics, rapid expansion via its integrated B2B2C model, and demonstrated success diversifying into new underwriting verticals. Analyst Commentary Exceptional unit economics and operating leverage are resulting in strong EBITDA margins.Analysis Article • Jul 07
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:PGY) Shares Leap 27% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story
Despite an already strong run, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27...New Narrative • May 28
Digital Transformation And AI Will Broaden Lending Channels
AI-enhanced products, network effects, and diversified asset classes support sustained revenue growth and improved margins amid ongoing digital transformation in the lending sector.Analysis Article • May 22
A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:PGY) 56% Share Price Climb
Those holding Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 56...Analysis Article • Feb 15
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:PGY) Shares Bounce 74% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry
The Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent...Seeking Alpha • Jan 24
Pagaya: 2025 Will Be A Year Of Clarity, Strong Buy
Summary With its unique investor network, Pagaya is all set to scale its business by approving more loans through its lending partners. Even with the most conservative valuation of its share price, Pagaya remains significantly undervalued. The bearish market stems from Pagaya's issues with credit impairments. Something that management say will improve going forward. Point-of-sale remains a hyper-growth market for Pagaya with key lending partners like fintech bank Klarna. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 22
Is Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...New Narrative • Jan 02
PGY is a Buy
Core Product: Pagaya’s AI-powered platform for financial underwriting and risk assessment is a key driver of revenue. As financial institutions increasingly adopt AI solutions for more accurate and efAnalysis Article • Nov 15
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$20.75 Price Target
There's been a major selloff in Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) shares in the week since it released its...Analysis Article • Nov 08
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:PGY) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 28%
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. ( NASDAQ:PGY ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 28...Analysis Article • Oct 24
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,866 | 298 | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,668 | 201 | N/A | 366 | 10 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,471 | 136 | N/A | 297 | 10 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,329 | 94 | 218 | 247 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,301 | 77 | 209 | 239 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,246 | -194 | 185 | 205 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,153 | -282 | 110 | 131 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,077 | -373 | 43 | 64 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,032 | -401 | 25 | 48 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 971 | -178 | 20 | 39 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 925 | -132 | 43 | 62 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 871 | -89 | 31 | 51 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 812 | -128 | -42 | -22 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 787 | -148 | -31 | -11 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 779 | -201 | -71 | -40 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 765 | -351 | -87 | -61 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 749 | -315 | -62 | -40 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 711 | -297 | -49 | -26 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 643 | -255 | 8 | 15 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 553 | -116 | 35 | 42 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 475 | -134 | 43 | 50 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 356 | -116 | 40 | 42 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 256 | -80 | 16 | 17 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 178 | -38 | 9 | 11 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 99 | 5 | 3 | 4 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 36 | -8 | N/A | -8 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PGY's forecast earnings growth (35.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: PGY's earnings (35.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: PGY's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PGY's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PGY's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PGY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (32.3%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/13 04:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/13 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is covered by 11 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Mark Palmer | Benchmark Company |
| Michael Legg | Benchmark Company |
| Harold Goetsch | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |