Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

NasdaqCM:PGY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.8b

Pagaya Technologies Valuation

Is PGY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PGY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: PGY ($20.56) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($174.21)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: PGY is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PGY?

Key metric: As PGY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PGY. This is calculated by dividing PGY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PGY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14x
EarningsUS$122.54m
Market CapUS$1.81b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PGY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PGY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average42.4x
OPRA Opera
12.6x10.96%US$1.6b
BL BlackLine
47.6x55.33%US$1.6b
KARO Karooooo
33.7x18.84%US$2.1b
RDVT Red Violet
75.6x16.58%US$1.2b
PGY Pagaya Technologies
14x35.66%US$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (42.4x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PGY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AISP Airship AI Holdings
2.6x-145.21%US$65.61m
IONI I-ON Digital
3.3xn/aUS$4.79m
ESSI Eco Science Solutions
0.2xn/aUS$1.79m
CTKY.Y CooTek (Cayman)
3.2xn/aUS$201.68k
PGY 14.0xIndustry Avg. 29.8xNo. of Companies16PE020406080100+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the US Software industry average (29.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PGY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PGY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14x
Fair PE Ratio44.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PGY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PGY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$20.56
US$28.91
+40.61%
15.57%US$36.00US$23.00n/a11
Sep ’27US$20.94
US$29.20
+39.45%
15.83%US$36.00US$23.00n/a10
Aug ’27US$19.27
US$28.50
+47.90%
18.65%US$36.00US$21.00n/a10
Jul ’27US$18.77
US$26.90
+43.31%
19.06%US$33.00US$20.00n/a10
Jun ’27US$15.64
US$26.90
+71.99%
19.06%US$33.00US$20.00n/a10
May ’27US$14.24
US$26.40
+85.39%
20.90%US$33.00US$20.00n/a10
Apr ’27US$11.70
US$26.91
+129.99%
18.17%US$33.00US$20.00n/a11
Mar ’27US$11.19
US$27.55
+146.16%
17.40%US$33.00US$20.00n/a11
Feb ’27US$19.39
US$39.00
+101.13%
19.19%US$54.00US$27.00n/a10
Jan ’27US$20.90
US$40.50
+93.78%
18.12%US$54.00US$27.00n/a10
Dec ’26US$24.13
US$40.80
+69.08%
17.57%US$54.00US$27.00n/a10
Nov ’26US$26.89
US$40.50
+50.61%
18.02%US$54.00US$27.00n/a10
Oct ’26US$29.91
US$40.50
+35.41%
18.02%US$54.00US$27.00n/a10
Sep ’26US$36.88
US$40.50
+9.82%
18.02%US$54.00US$27.00US$20.9410
Aug ’26US$29.12
US$33.08
+13.58%
30.18%US$46.00US$13.75US$19.2710
Jul ’26US$22.59
US$23.13
+2.37%
26.96%US$36.00US$13.75US$18.7710
Jun ’26US$16.44
US$22.58
+37.37%
29.01%US$36.00US$13.75US$15.649
May ’26US$11.36
US$22.11
+94.64%
29.56%US$36.00US$12.50US$14.249
Apr ’26US$10.56
US$21.60
+104.55%
33.25%US$36.00US$11.00US$11.7010
Mar ’26US$12.83
US$21.40
+66.80%
34.34%US$36.00US$11.00US$11.1910
Feb ’26US$9.28
US$20.20
+117.67%
38.84%US$36.00US$11.00US$19.3910
Jan ’26US$9.29
US$20.70
+122.82%
40.02%US$36.00US$11.00US$20.9010
Dec ’25US$10.93
US$21.78
+99.25%
36.91%US$36.00US$11.00US$24.139
Nov ’25US$11.68
US$22.89
+95.97%
35.94%US$36.00US$12.00US$26.899
Oct ’25US$9.94
US$22.89
+130.27%
35.94%US$36.00US$12.00US$29.919
Sep ’25US$15.06
US$27.00
+79.28%
43.35%US$48.00US$13.00US$36.888
US$28.91
Fair Value
28.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/17 04:01
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/17 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is covered by 12 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harold GoetschB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Joseph VafiCanaccord Genuity
Peter ChristiansenCitigroup Inc