A Closer Look at monday.com (MNDY) Valuation After Bullish Analyst Report and Upbeat Revenue Guidance

If you’ve been tracking monday.com (MNDY), you probably noticed the positive buzz after KeyBanc’s recent analyst report. The firm not only reaffirmed its bullish outlook, but also highlighted improvements in monday.com’s core Work OS platform, addressing earlier concerns about slowing growth in its other product lines. Most notably, the company’s upwardly revised revenue growth guidance for 2025 came in above market expectations and appears to have sparked renewed confidence among investors. While the stock has seen its share of volatility, dropping around 21% year-to-date and 29% over the past year, there are signs that the market may be reconsidering its stance. Short-term moves have picked up, with gains of 3% in a day and 5% for the week, signaling some momentum as the Gartner Digital Workplace Summit approaches. Still, the longer-term trend shows monday.com shares lagging recently, despite a substantial 60% increase over the past three years and robust revenue and net income growth figures. After this recent rally and upbeat guidance, some investors are considering whether monday.com could be poised for a comeback or if the market has already priced in future growth expectations at these levels.

Most Popular Narrative: 35.6% Undervalued

According to the community narrative, monday.com is trading well below its estimated fair value, with robust growth prospects and optimism around its future earnings powering this bullish outlook. The calculated valuation incorporates community consensus on factors like AI-driven expansion and margin improvement.

Ongoing global shift toward digital transformation, remote and hybrid work, and rising SaaS adoption continues fueling strong demand for cloud-based productivity and collaboration platforms like monday.com. This demand supports high double-digit revenue growth and future annual recurring revenue (ARR) expansion.

What is driving such a high fair value for monday.com? This narrative points to dramatic improvements in enterprise growth and a focus on expanding into new markets. Want to discover what key financial assumptions have analysts so excited and the bold growth metrics behind their targets? Unpack the details that separate a typical tech story from a potential outlier and take a deeper look before everyone else.

Result: Fair Value of $282.46 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifting search algorithms and increased competition from other SaaS providers could quickly challenge monday.com's growth rates and future profitability assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this monday.com narrative.

Another View: DCF Adds a Second Opinion

While the community’s optimism is based on sales and optimism-driven multiples, the SWS DCF model also points to monday.com being undervalued. How do these two models compare when weighing future cash flows against market sentiment?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out monday.com for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own monday.com Narrative

If you see things differently or want to take a hands-on approach, you can dive into the numbers and craft your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding monday.com.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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