Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CCCS)

Key Insights

• CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings' estimated fair value is US$11.18 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With US$11.52 share price, CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The US$14.17 analyst price target for CCCS is 27% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CCCS) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings

Is CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$251.9m	US$287.5m	US$314.0m	US$336.5m	US$355.8m	US$372.6m	US$387.6m	US$401.2m	US$414.0m	US$426.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 9.22%	Est @ 7.17%	Est @ 5.73%	Est @ 4.73%	Est @ 4.02%	Est @ 3.53%	Est @ 3.18%	Est @ 2.94%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%	US$235	US$250	US$255	US$255	US$252	US$246	US$239	US$231	US$222	US$213

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.4b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$426m× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.4%) = US$9.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$9.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= US$4.6b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$7.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$11.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.042. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings, there are three further factors you should explore:

1. Financial Health: Does CCCS have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does CCCS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com