Should You Think About Buying Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) Now?

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGS over the last few months, increasing to US$58.24 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$47.13. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Alarm.com Holdings' current trading price of US$49.48 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Alarm.com Holdings’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Alarm.com Holdings

Is Alarm.com Holdings Still Cheap?

According to my valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 40%, trading at US$49.48 compared to my intrinsic value of $35.39. This means that the opportunity to buy Alarm.com Holdings at a good price has disappeared! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Alarm.com Holdings’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of Alarm.com Holdings look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Alarm.com Holdings, at least in the near future.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? If you believe ALRM should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the risk from a negative growth outlook, this could be the right time to reduce your total portfolio risk. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on ALRM for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its true value, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Alarm.com Holdings you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Alarm.com Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.