Apple (NasdaqGS:AAPL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AAPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AAPL ($141.66) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($164.4)

AAPL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

AAPL Stock Overview

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 13.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 3.56% per year

Earnings have grown 15% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Apple Competitors

Alphabet

NasdaqGS:GOOGL

US$1.5t

Meta Platforms

NasdaqGS:META

US$474.0b

Microsoft

NasdaqGS:MSFT

US$2.0t

Amazon.com

NasdaqGS:AMZN

US$1.2t

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Apple
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$141.66
52 Week High	US$182.94
52 Week Low	US$129.04
Beta	1.2
1 Month Change	-5.33%
3 Month Change	-20.84%
1 Year Change	5.10%
3 Year Change	181.14%
5 Year Change	294.87%
Change since IPO	42,493.11%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 27

Apple: 3 Reasons Why The Stock Could Trade Higher

Apple has outperformed for decades, but the company is arguably still a bargain. I present three arguments why I believe Apple shares could trade considerably higher within the next 12-36 months. New market opportunities including (1) VR/AR and the Apple Car, (2) accelerating strength in Apple's service portfolio, and (3) continued financial engineering. I value AAPL shares based on a residual earnings framework and calculate a fair base-case target price of $247.51/share, implying upside of >75%.

Jun 21

Apple Shows A Change In Valuation Thesis

Apple faces the greatest challenge compared to other peers in the new regulatory pushback against Big Tech. It is important to note the impact on revenue and business model of a company due to new regulations instead of monetary fines being imposed. Apple could soon face regulations forcing it to allow other payments options on its App Store which has been the core business for Services segment. Apple will also face challenges in its licensing deal with Google as it prevents many other competitors from gaining fair access to Apple device users. The overall headwinds faced by Apple are not priced in the current valuation of the company and we could see further correction in the stock when these regulations are passed.

Jun 13

Payments, Credit, and EVs - The Key WWDC 2022 Takeaways for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Investors

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) unveiled a bundle of software and hardware updates at WWDC 2022, which may have implications for the further growth of the business. In this article, we will break down these announcements and analyze what they may mean from the perspective of investors.

Jun 13

As Much As We Hate It - The Algorithm Is Short AAPL

Apple has been trending lower since the January 2022 high. Aramco replaced Apple as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company. APPL is in a class by itself. AAPL is not immune to an overall stock market correction, led by the technology sector. The APS is short AAPL and will remain short until the trend bends.

Jun 08

What Does Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Share Price Indicate?

Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGS over the last...

Shareholder Returns

	AAPL	US Tech	US Market
7D	7.7%	7.6%	6.3%
1Y	5.1%	3.8%	-18.8%

Return vs Industry: AAPL matched the US Tech industry which returned 5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AAPL exceeded the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AAPL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AAPL volatility
AAPL Average Weekly Movement	5.7%
Tech Industry Average Movement	9.1%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: AAPL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AAPL's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1977	154,000	Tim Cook	https://www.apple.com

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. It also sells various related services. In addition, the company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; AirPods Max, an over-ear wireless headphone; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, and iPod touch.

Apple Fundamentals Summary

How do Apple's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AAPL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.29t
Earnings (TTM)	US$101.94b
Revenue (TTM)	US$386.02b

22.5x

P/E Ratio

5.9x

P/S Ratio

Is AAPL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AAPL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$386.02b
Cost of Revenue	US$218.79b
Gross Profit	US$167.23b
Other Expenses	US$65.30b
Earnings	US$101.94b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 26, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	6.30
Gross Margin	43.32%
Net Profit Margin	26.41%
Debt/Equity Ratio	178.0%

How did AAPL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.6%

Current Dividend Yield

14%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AAPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAPL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AAPL. This is calculated by dividing AAPL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AAPL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.29t

AAPL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	5.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	17x
PEG Ratio	6.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AAPL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.6x
GOOGL Alphabet	20.5x	14.1%	US$1.5t
META Meta Platforms	12.7x	13.6%	US$474.0b
MSFT Microsoft	27.3x	11.8%	US$2.0t
AMZN Amazon.com	53.8x	45.1%	US$1.2t
AAPL Apple	22.5x	3.6%	US$2.3t

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the peer average (28.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Tech Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the US Tech industry average (14.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.5x
Fair PE Ratio	29.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAPL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AAPL ($141.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($164.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAPL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AAPL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (6.3x)

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Future Growth

How is Apple forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 40 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

3.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAPL's forecast earnings growth (3.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AAPL's earnings (3.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AAPL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AAPL's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AAPL's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AAPL's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (98.3%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Apple performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

15.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AAPL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AAPL's current net profit margins (26.4%) are higher than last year (23.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AAPL's earnings have grown by 15% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AAPL's earnings growth over the past year (33.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (15% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AAPL earnings growth over the past year (33.8%) underperformed the Tech industry 67.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst AAPL's Return on Equity (151.24%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Apple's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AAPL's short term assets ($118.2B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($127.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: AAPL's short term assets ($118.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($155.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AAPL's net debt to equity ratio (101.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AAPL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 73.3% to 178% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AAPL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (97%).

Interest Coverage: AAPL earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Apple current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.65%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AAPL's dividend (0.65%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: AAPL's dividend (0.65%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.23%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AAPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: AAPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: AAPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: AAPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tim Cook (60 yo)

10.83yrs

Tenure

US$98,734,394

Compensation

Mr. Timothy D. Cook, also known as Tim, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Apple Inc. since August 24, 2011. Mr. Cook served as the Chief Operating Officer of Apple Inc., from October 14, 2005 to Augu...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tim's total compensation ($USD98.73M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.43M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tim's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AAPL's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AAPL's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/26
Annual Earnings	2021/09/25