CarMax, Inc.

NYSE:KMX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.1b

CarMax Valuation

Is KMX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KMX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$20.53
Fair Value
224.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: KMX ($66.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($20.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KMX is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KMX?

Key metric: As KMX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KMX. This is calculated by dividing KMX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KMX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.3x
EarningsUS$500.56m
Market CapUS$10.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KMX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KMX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
MUSA Murphy USA
17.9x7.9%US$10.0b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
11.1x1.8%US$10.3b
AN AutoNation
10x7.1%US$6.6b
LAD Lithia Motors
9.3x9.9%US$7.7b
KMX CarMax
20.3x15.5%US$10.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KMX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2.4xn/aUS$16.04m
SSOK Sunstock
1xn/aUS$1.47m
MASN Maison Luxe
0.1xn/aUS$192.03k
COSG Cosmos Group Holdings
0.0005xn/aUS$4.59k
KMX 20.3xIndustry Avg. 15.2xNo. of Companies17PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KMX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KMX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.3x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KMX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$66.55
US$83.88
+26.0%
19.1%US$118.00US$55.00n/a16
May ’26US$65.52
US$83.88
+28.0%
19.1%US$118.00US$55.00n/a16
Apr ’26US$78.88
US$90.52
+14.8%
19.6%US$123.00US$56.00n/a16
Mar ’26US$82.97
US$91.02
+9.7%
19.2%US$123.00US$56.00n/a16
Feb ’26US$85.64
US$89.46
+4.5%
18.6%US$123.00US$56.00n/a16
Jan ’26US$81.76
US$89.33
+9.3%
18.9%US$123.00US$56.00n/a16
Dec ’25US$83.97
US$82.42
-1.9%
20.5%US$123.00US$58.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$72.30
US$82.08
+13.5%
20.7%US$123.00US$58.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$78.17
US$81.88
+4.7%
21.0%US$123.00US$50.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$84.55
US$79.56
-5.9%
23.7%US$123.00US$50.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$81.60
US$79.56
-2.5%
23.7%US$123.00US$50.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$71.21
US$78.73
+10.6%
24.4%US$123.00US$50.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$70.26
US$79.63
+13.3%
24.0%US$125.00US$48.00n/a16
May ’25US$67.21
US$80.35
+19.5%
23.4%US$125.00US$48.00US$65.5217
Apr ’25US$85.94
US$84.34
-1.9%
22.9%US$135.00US$50.00US$78.8817
Mar ’25US$79.30
US$82.11
+3.5%
24.2%US$135.00US$50.00US$82.9715
Feb ’25US$72.84
US$80.98
+11.2%
24.8%US$135.00US$44.00US$85.6416
Jan ’25US$76.74
US$79.91
+4.1%
25.6%US$135.00US$44.00US$81.7616
Dec ’24US$67.39
US$78.03
+15.8%
27.3%US$135.00US$44.00US$83.9715
Nov ’24US$61.49
US$79.29
+29.0%
26.6%US$135.00US$44.00US$72.3015
Oct ’24US$70.73
US$80.60
+14.0%
25.5%US$135.00US$44.00US$78.1715
Sep ’24US$83.58
US$81.47
-2.5%
25.5%US$135.00US$44.00US$84.5515
Aug ’24US$84.08
US$81.40
-3.2%
25.3%US$135.00US$44.00US$81.6015
Jul ’24US$83.70
US$80.27
-4.1%
25.7%US$135.00US$44.00US$71.2115
Jun ’24US$71.81
US$72.88
+1.5%
29.7%US$141.00US$40.00US$70.2616
May ’24US$70.48
US$72.88
+3.4%
29.7%US$141.00US$40.00US$67.2116
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
US$83.88
Fair Value
20.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/08 23:11
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/08 00:00
Earnings2025/02/28
Annual Earnings2025/02/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

CarMax, Inc. is covered by 43 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Craig KennisonBaird
Sam YakeBGB Securities, Inc.