Earnings Beat: Coupang, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Coupang, Inc. (NYSE:CPNG) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$18.24 in the week since its latest yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$24b were what the analysts expected, Coupang surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.75 per share, an impressive 211% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Coupang

Following the latest results, Coupang's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$28.3b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 60% to US$0.31 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.40 in 2024. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a pretty serious reduction to EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$21.26, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Coupang at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$12.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Coupang's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Coupang is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Coupang going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Coupang that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.