AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE:AN) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE:AN) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.1% to US$144 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$27b and statutory earnings per share of US$22.74. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for AutoNation

Taking into account the latest results, AutoNation's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$27.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 22% to US$19.02 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$27.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$19.28 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$162. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on AutoNation, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$220 and the most bearish at US$117 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AutoNation's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that AutoNation's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AutoNation.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AutoNation analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with AutoNation (including 2 which make us uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.