Stock Analysis

Here's Why We Think Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) Is Well Worth Watching

NasdaqGS:ULTA
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, so investors in these companies may be taking on more risk than they should.

So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA). While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.

See our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty's Earnings Per Share Are Growing

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you'd expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. Impressively, Ulta Beauty has grown EPS by 27% per year, compound, in the last three years. As a general rule, we'd say that if a company can keep up that sort of growth, shareholders will be beaming.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. While we note Ulta Beauty achieved similar EBIT margins to last year, revenue grew by a solid 18% to US$10b. That's a real positive.

You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NasdaqGS:ULTA Earnings and Revenue History April 19th 2023

While we live in the present moment, there's little doubt that the future matters most in the investment decision process. So why not check this interactive chart depicting future EPS estimates, for Ulta Beauty?

Are Ulta Beauty Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

We would not expect to see insiders owning a large percentage of a US$27b company like Ulta Beauty. But thanks to their investment in the company, it's pleasing to see that there are still incentives to align their actions with the shareholders. Notably, they have an enviable stake in the company, worth US$138m. While that is a lot of skin in the game, we note this holding only totals to 0.5% of the business, which is a result of the company being so large. This should still be a great incentive for management to maximise shareholder value.

It's good to see that insiders are invested in the company, but are remuneration levels reasonable? Well, based on the CEO pay, you'd argue that they are indeed. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to Ulta Beauty, with market caps over US$8.0b, is around US$13m.

The Ulta Beauty CEO received US$8.5m in compensation for the year ending January 2022. That seems pretty reasonable, especially given it's below the median for similar sized companies. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when it's reasonable, that gives a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of a culture of integrity, in a broader sense.

Does Ulta Beauty Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

For growth investors, Ulta Beauty's raw rate of earnings growth is a beacon in the night. If that's not enough, consider also that the CEO pay is quite reasonable, and insiders are well-invested alongside other shareholders. This may only be a fast rundown, but the key takeaway is that Ulta Beauty is worth keeping an eye on. It is worth noting though that we have found 1 warning sign for Ulta Beauty that you need to take into consideration.

Although Ulta Beauty certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see insider buying, then this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying, could be exactly what you're looking for.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.