Stock Analysis

Calculating The Fair Value Of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY)

NasdaqGS:ORLY
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for O'Reilly Automotive is US$848 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of US$922 suggests O'Reilly Automotive is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • Our fair value estimate is 16% lower than O'Reilly Automotive's analyst price target of US$1,006

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for O'Reilly Automotive

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$2.36b US$2.60b US$2.60b US$2.72b US$2.81b US$2.89b US$2.97b US$3.05b US$3.13b US$3.20b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x5 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ 3.41% Est @ 3.03% Est @ 2.77% Est @ 2.58% Est @ 2.45% Est @ 2.36%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% US$2.2k US$2.3k US$2.1k US$2.0k US$2.0k US$1.9k US$1.8k US$1.7k US$1.7k US$1.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$19b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.2b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.3%– 2.2%) = US$63b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$63b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= US$31b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$51b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$922, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
NasdaqGS:ORLY Discounted Cash Flow October 27th 2023

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at O'Reilly Automotive as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.032. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for O'Reilly Automotive

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Threat
  • Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For O'Reilly Automotive, there are three relevant items you should consider:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for O'Reilly Automotive (1 is concerning!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ORLY's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether O'Reilly Automotive is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.