O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ORLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$59.3b

O'Reilly Automotive Valuation

Is ORLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORLY ($1007.31) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($965.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORLY is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORLY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ORLY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18.3x
PEG Ratio4.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.6x
AZO AutoZone
18.5x3.8%US$48.6b
CVNA Carvana
18.9x1.3%US$21.1b
KMX CarMax
23x15.2%US$11.0b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
10x0.8%US$9.7b
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
25x5.8%US$59.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the peer average (17.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25x
Fair PE Ratio18.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ORLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$1,007.31
US$1,150.62
+14.2%
10.2%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$963.26
US$1,151.07
+19.5%
10.3%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a22
May ’25US$1,005.11
US$1,146.19
+14.0%
9.9%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$1,130.28
US$1,119.74
-0.9%
9.9%US$1,300.00US$780.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$1,085.45
US$1,107.09
+2.0%
9.3%US$1,250.00US$780.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$1,041.75
US$1,039.27
-0.2%
9.3%US$1,170.00US$720.00n/a22
Jan ’25US$950.08
US$1,024.41
+7.8%
8.5%US$1,150.00US$720.00n/a22
Dec ’24US$980.52
US$1,015.05
+3.5%
7.9%US$1,100.00US$720.00n/a22
Nov ’24US$945.66
US$1,011.18
+6.9%
8.2%US$1,100.00US$700.00n/a22
Oct ’24US$908.86
US$1,001.00
+10.1%
7.8%US$1,075.00US$700.00n/a21
Sep ’24US$947.45
US$1,001.24
+5.7%
7.8%US$1,075.00US$700.00n/a21
Aug ’24US$931.05
US$994.86
+6.9%
8.5%US$1,075.00US$680.00n/a22
Jul ’24US$955.30
US$967.59
+1.3%
8.6%US$1,055.00US$680.00n/a22
Jun ’24US$895.28
US$963.73
+7.6%
8.6%US$1,055.00US$680.00US$963.2622
May ’24US$929.60
US$959.64
+3.2%
8.8%US$1,055.00US$670.00US$1,005.1122
Apr ’24US$848.98
US$891.52
+5.0%
7.6%US$975.00US$640.00US$1,130.2821
Mar ’24US$824.22
US$889.14
+7.9%
7.8%US$975.00US$640.00US$1,085.4521
Feb ’24US$807.93
US$884.42
+9.5%
7.9%US$975.00US$640.00US$1,041.7519
Jan ’24US$844.03
US$868.10
+2.9%
8.8%US$946.00US$600.00US$950.0820
Dec ’23US$857.18
US$868.10
+1.3%
8.8%US$946.00US$600.00US$980.5220
Nov ’23US$834.00
US$849.35
+1.8%
9.4%US$946.00US$600.00US$945.6620
Oct ’23US$703.35
US$758.20
+7.8%
7.7%US$823.00US$580.00US$908.8620
Sep ’23US$706.47
US$759.20
+7.5%
7.7%US$823.00US$580.00US$947.4520
Aug ’23US$708.99
US$744.80
+5.1%
7.9%US$815.00US$580.00US$931.0520
Jul ’23US$636.08
US$729.55
+14.7%
8.1%US$806.00US$580.00US$955.3020
Jun ’23US$624.61
US$737.21
+18.0%
8.5%US$806.00US$570.00US$895.2819

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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