O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ORLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$70.4b

O'Reilly Automotive Valuation

Is ORLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORLY ($1219.11) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($1140.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORLY is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORLY?

Key metric: As ORLY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ORLY. This is calculated by dividing ORLY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ORLY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.5x
EarningsUS$2.39b
Market CapUS$70.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
AZO AutoZone
20.7x4.5%US$54.6b
MUSA Murphy USA
20.6x7.2%US$10.6b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12x2.7%US$10.5b
KMX CarMax
28.1x17.7%US$13.0b
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
29.5x6.0%US$70.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.5x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$14.44m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$144.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000004xn/aUS$749.00
ORLY 29.5xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.5x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.5x
Fair PE Ratio18.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ORLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$1,219.11
US$1,271.75
+4.3%
11.5%US$1,450.00US$870.00n/a24
Dec ’25US$1,243.22
US$1,263.14
+1.6%
11.3%US$1,400.00US$870.00n/a23
Nov ’25US$1,146.59
US$1,253.57
+9.3%
11.3%US$1,400.00US$870.00n/a23
Oct ’25US$1,161.99
US$1,175.61
+1.2%
10.4%US$1,300.00US$810.00n/a22
Sep ’25US$1,129.97
US$1,171.74
+3.7%
10.2%US$1,290.00US$810.00n/a22
Aug ’25US$1,133.40
US$1,150.98
+1.6%
10.2%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a22
Jul ’25US$1,016.32
US$1,149.94
+13.1%
10.2%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$963.26
US$1,151.07
+19.5%
10.3%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a22
May ’25US$1,005.11
US$1,146.19
+14.0%
9.9%US$1,275.00US$810.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$1,130.28
US$1,119.74
-0.9%
9.9%US$1,300.00US$780.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$1,085.45
US$1,107.09
+2.0%
9.3%US$1,250.00US$780.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$1,041.75
US$1,039.27
-0.2%
9.3%US$1,170.00US$720.00n/a22
Jan ’25US$950.08
US$1,024.41
+7.8%
8.5%US$1,150.00US$720.00n/a22
Dec ’24US$980.52
US$1,015.05
+3.5%
7.9%US$1,100.00US$720.00US$1,243.2222
Nov ’24US$945.66
US$1,011.18
+6.9%
8.2%US$1,100.00US$700.00US$1,146.5922
Oct ’24US$908.86
US$1,001.00
+10.1%
7.8%US$1,075.00US$700.00US$1,161.9921
Sep ’24US$947.45
US$1,001.24
+5.7%
7.8%US$1,075.00US$700.00US$1,129.9721
Aug ’24US$931.05
US$994.86
+6.9%
8.5%US$1,075.00US$680.00US$1,133.4022
Jul ’24US$955.30
US$967.59
+1.3%
8.6%US$1,055.00US$680.00US$1,016.3222
Jun ’24US$895.28
US$963.73
+7.6%
8.6%US$1,055.00US$680.00US$963.2622
May ’24US$929.60
US$959.64
+3.2%
8.8%US$1,055.00US$670.00US$1,005.1122
Apr ’24US$848.98
US$891.52
+5.0%
7.6%US$975.00US$640.00US$1,130.2821
Mar ’24US$824.22
US$889.14
+7.9%
7.8%US$975.00US$640.00US$1,085.4521
Feb ’24US$807.93
US$884.42
+9.5%
7.9%US$975.00US$640.00US$1,041.7519
Jan ’24US$844.03
US$868.10
+2.9%
8.8%US$946.00US$600.00US$950.0820
Dec ’23US$857.18
US$868.10
+1.3%
8.8%US$946.00US$600.00US$980.5220

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is covered by 61 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Bret JordanAvondale Partners
Craig KennisonBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research