Carvana Co.

NYSE:CVNA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$35.9b

Carvana Valuation

Is CVNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$640.25
Fair Value
71.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CVNA ($181.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($640.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVNA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVNA?

Key metric: As CVNA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CVNA. This is calculated by dividing CVNA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CVNA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio115.7x
EarningsUS$210.00m
Market CapUS$35.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CVNA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CVNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.2x
AZO AutoZone
22.8x4.9%US$59.4b
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
31.9x6.2%US$73.9b
KMX CarMax
23.3x19.1%US$10.7b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
10.8x2.2%US$9.9b
CVNA Carvana
115.7x29.3%US$35.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (115.7x) compared to the peer average (22.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CVNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2.1xn/aUS$14.26m
MASN Maison Luxe
0.1xn/aUS$172.83k
No more companies available in this PE range
CVNA 115.7xIndustry Avg. 13.8xNo. of Companies16PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (115.7x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVNA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVNA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio115.7x
Fair PE Ratio33x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (115.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$181.18
US$268.16
+48.0%
22.1%US$365.00US$108.00n/a20
Mar ’26US$233.10
US$274.66
+17.8%
19.5%US$350.00US$108.00n/a20
Feb ’26US$247.48
US$253.41
+2.4%
21.4%US$350.00US$108.00n/a20
Jan ’26US$203.36
US$248.81
+22.3%
19.9%US$330.00US$108.00n/a20
Dec ’25US$260.42
US$246.31
-5.4%
19.3%US$320.00US$108.00n/a20
Nov ’25US$229.08
US$234.74
+2.5%
24.9%US$320.00US$108.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$175.80
US$154.81
-11.9%
21.5%US$200.00US$72.00n/a21
Sep ’25US$150.62
US$149.47
-0.8%
21.8%US$200.00US$72.00n/a19
Aug ’25US$146.52
US$142.63
-2.7%
25.5%US$200.00US$54.00n/a19
Jul ’25US$124.35
US$109.18
-12.2%
24.0%US$150.00US$54.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$99.98
US$105.71
+5.7%
21.2%US$135.00US$54.00n/a17
May ’25US$87.09
US$65.41
-24.9%
22.3%US$90.00US$26.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$86.79
US$62.86
-27.6%
23.6%US$90.00US$26.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$82.96
US$55.53
-33.1%
23.7%US$80.00US$26.00US$233.1017
Feb ’25US$42.53
US$38.61
-9.2%
31.7%US$62.00US$15.00US$247.4818
Jan ’25US$52.94
US$36.71
-30.7%
30.5%US$62.00US$15.00US$203.3617
Dec ’24US$35.20
US$34.76
-1.2%
28.7%US$60.00US$15.00US$260.4217
Nov ’24US$25.99
US$40.88
+57.3%
32.9%US$60.00US$5.00US$229.0817
Oct ’24US$41.98
US$43.00
+2.4%
34.0%US$63.00US$5.00US$175.8017
Sep ’24US$50.85
US$42.29
-16.8%
34.4%US$63.00US$5.00US$150.6217
Aug ’24US$49.11
US$40.71
-17.1%
38.3%US$63.00US$5.00US$146.5217
Jul ’24US$25.92
US$15.69
-39.5%
55.1%US$36.00US$1.00US$124.3516
Jun ’24US$15.80
US$11.58
-26.7%
61.2%US$36.00US$1.00US$99.9819
May ’24US$6.93
US$9.53
+37.5%
44.0%US$20.00US$1.00US$87.0917
Apr ’24US$9.79
US$9.56
-2.3%
45.1%US$20.00US$1.00US$86.7916
Mar ’24US$8.91
US$9.28
+4.1%
47.1%US$20.00US$1.00US$82.9618
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts
US$268.16
Fair Value
32.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/14 04:24
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/14 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Carvana Co. is covered by 46 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Colin SebastianBaird
Craig KennisonBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research