Carvana Co.

NYSE:CVNA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$60.3b

Carvana Valuation

Is CVNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$430.05
Fair Value
33.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CVNA ($285.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($430.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVNA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVNA?

Key metric: As CVNA is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CVNA. This is calculated by dividing CVNA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CVNA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.9x
SalesUS$12.55b
Market CapUS$60.26b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CVNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CVNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
AZO AutoZone
3.1x5.2%US$58.0b
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
4.5x5.4%US$75.8b
KMX CarMax
0.5x3.1%US$13.7b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
0.4x4.4%US$11.6b
CVNA Carvana
2.9x17.5%US$60.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CVNA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

49 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TA TravelCenters of America
0.1x-0.8%US$1.30b
ARKO Arko
0.1x-1.7%US$892.60m
WOOF Petco Health and Wellness Company
0.1x1.8%US$813.19m
ODP ODP
0.08x-2.1%US$607.79m
CVNA 2.9xIndustry Avg. 0.4xNo. of Companies49PS00.61.21.82.43+
49 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVNA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.9x
Fair PS Ratio1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$285.33
US$257.16
-9.9%
21.7%US$350.00US$108.00n/a20
Feb ’26US$247.48
US$253.41
+2.4%
21.4%US$350.00US$108.00n/a20
Jan ’26US$203.36
US$248.81
+22.3%
19.9%US$330.00US$108.00n/a20
Dec ’25US$260.42
US$246.31
-5.4%
19.3%US$320.00US$108.00n/a20
Nov ’25US$229.08
US$234.74
+2.5%
24.9%US$320.00US$108.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$175.80
US$154.81
-11.9%
21.5%US$200.00US$72.00n/a21
Sep ’25US$150.62
US$149.47
-0.8%
21.8%US$200.00US$72.00n/a19
Aug ’25US$146.52
US$142.63
-2.7%
25.5%US$200.00US$54.00n/a19
Jul ’25US$124.35
US$109.18
-12.2%
24.0%US$150.00US$54.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$99.98
US$105.71
+5.7%
21.2%US$135.00US$54.00n/a17
May ’25US$87.09
US$65.41
-24.9%
22.3%US$90.00US$26.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$86.79
US$62.86
-27.6%
23.6%US$90.00US$26.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$82.96
US$55.53
-33.1%
23.7%US$80.00US$26.00n/a17
Feb ’25US$42.53
US$38.61
-9.2%
31.7%US$62.00US$15.00US$247.4818
Jan ’25US$52.94
US$36.71
-30.7%
30.5%US$62.00US$15.00US$203.3617
Dec ’24US$35.20
US$34.76
-1.2%
28.7%US$60.00US$15.00US$260.4217
Nov ’24US$25.99
US$40.88
+57.3%
32.9%US$60.00US$5.00US$229.0817
Oct ’24US$41.98
US$43.00
+2.4%
34.0%US$63.00US$5.00US$175.8017
Sep ’24US$50.85
US$42.29
-16.8%
34.4%US$63.00US$5.00US$150.6217
Aug ’24US$49.11
US$40.71
-17.1%
38.3%US$63.00US$5.00US$146.5217
Jul ’24US$25.92
US$15.69
-39.5%
55.1%US$36.00US$1.00US$124.3516
Jun ’24US$15.80
US$11.58
-26.7%
61.2%US$36.00US$1.00US$99.9819
May ’24US$6.93
US$9.53
+37.5%
44.0%US$20.00US$1.00US$87.0917
Apr ’24US$9.79
US$9.56
-2.3%
45.1%US$20.00US$1.00US$86.7916
Mar ’24US$8.91
US$9.28
+4.1%
47.1%US$20.00US$1.00US$82.9618
Feb ’24US$13.56
US$10.69
-21.1%
90.9%US$45.00US$1.00US$42.5318
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts
US$257.16
Fair Value
11.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/16 03:15
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/14 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Carvana Co. is covered by 47 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Craig KennisonBaird
Colin SebastianBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research