| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
CVNA Stock Overview
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States.
Carvana Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$30.96 |
| 52 Week High | US$376.83 |
| 52 Week Low | US$25.69 |
| Beta | 2.55 |
| 1 Month Change | -61.88% |
| 3 Month Change | -75.44% |
| 1 Year Change | -88.05% |
| 3 Year Change | -46.58% |
| 5 Year Change | 208.06% |
| Change since IPO | 178.92% |
Recent News & Updates
Is Carvana Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? Down 90% But Still Risky
Carvana is down 90% since all-time highs of the past year. On the surface, this looks like a secular growth story trading at deeply discounted valuations. While the stock will provide phenomenal upside in the bull case, there are numerous reasons to doubt the long-term outlook. In particular, one should not ignore the highly leveraged balance sheet which strains an already negative cash flow position. The stock is down 90%, but valuation is not the problem here.
Steel City Capital - Carvana: Up Against The Clock From A Liquidity Perspective
On the short side, Steel City Capital's largest contributor by far has been Carvana. CVNA was nearly breakeven from an EBITDA perspective last year. All companies hit "bumps in the road" during their lifecycles, but such issues are more acute in CVNA's case because of their heavy reliance on external funding. The key drivers of CVNA's business are rolling over, it's unclear they'll rebound any time soon, and the company is up against the clock from a liquidity perspective.
Carvana Stock: A Dreadful Risk-Return Profile
Carvana stock is in danger of another drawdown despite the company's progress during the past year. The firm's capital restructure remains a concern. Quantitative metrics suggest the stock's risk profile isn't up to par. The economic circumstances that carried the stock in the past have shifted. Carvana's income and cash flow statements aren't one and the same.
Shareholder Returns
| CVNA | US Specialty Retail | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -11.7% | -0.6% | 1.0% |
| 1Y | -88.1% | -27.4% | -15.1% |
Return vs Industry: CVNA underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned -29.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CVNA underperformed the US Market which returned -13.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| CVNA volatility | |
|---|---|
| CVNA Average Weekly Movement | 18.6% |
| Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement | 8.7% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: CVNA is more volatile than 90% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 19% a week.
Volatility Over Time: CVNA's weekly volatility has increased from 12% to 19% over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 21,000 | Ernie Garcia | https://www.carvana.com |
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company’s platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company’s 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Carvana Fundamentals Summary
| CVNA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$5.55b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$359.00m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$14.07b |
0.2x
P/S Ratio-9.1x
P/E RatioIs CVNA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| CVNA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$14.07b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$12.17b |
| Gross Profit | US$1.90b |
| Other Expenses | US$2.26b |
| Earnings | -US$359.00m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -3.39 |
| Gross Margin | 13.50% |
| Net Profit Margin | -2.55% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 11,400.0% |
How did CVNA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is Carvana undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry
>50%
Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: CVNA ($30.96) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($227.93)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CVNA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: CVNA is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US Specialty Retail industry average.
PE vs Market: CVNA is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US market.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CVNA's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: CVNA is overvalued based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (40.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (1.7x).
Future Growth
How is Carvana forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 25 analysts?
Future Growth Score
2/6Future Growth Score 2/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
76.6%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CVNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: CVNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: CVNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CVNA's revenue (23% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CVNA's revenue (23% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CVNA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
Past Performance
How has Carvana performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
0/6Past Performance Score 0/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
-21.2%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: CVNA is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: CVNA is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CVNA is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 21.2% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CVNA's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: CVNA is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Specialty Retail industry (70.8%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: CVNA has a negative Return on Equity (-1367.31%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Financial Health
How is Carvana's financial position?
Financial Health Score
3/6Financial Health Score 3/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: CVNA's short term assets ($5.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.7B).
Long Term Liabilities: CVNA's short term assets ($5.1B) exceed its long term liabilities ($3.8B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: CVNA's net debt to equity ratio (10125%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: CVNA had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.
Balance Sheet
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: CVNA has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: CVNA has less than a year of cash runway if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 45.7% each year
Dividend
What is Carvana current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CVNA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CVNA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CVNA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CVNA's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CVNA has not reported any payouts.
Discover strong dividend paying companies
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
7.2yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Ernie Garcia (38 yo)
10.33yrs
Tenure
US$5,050,345
Compensation
Mr. Ernest C. Garcia, III, also known as Ernie, has been Chief Executive Officer and President at Carvana Group, LLC since 2012 and serves as its Chairman. Mr. Garcia Founded Carvana Co. in 2012 and has be...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Ernie's total compensation ($USD5.05M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.23M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Ernie's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: CVNA's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.2 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: CVNA's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: CVNA insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.1%.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Carvana Co.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Carvana Co.
- Ticker: CVNA
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 2012
- Industry: Automotive Retail
- Sector: Retail
- Implied Market Cap: US$5.550b
- Market Cap: US$3.274b
- Shares outstanding: 191.15m
- Website: https://www.carvana.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Carvana Co.
- 1930 West Rio Salado Parkway
- Tempe
- Arizona
- 85281
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/05/25 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/05/25 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.