Stock Analysis

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY)

NasdaqGS:ORLY
Source: Shutterstock

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, O'Reilly Automotive fair value estimate is US$969
  • With US$1,082 share price, O'Reilly Automotive appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
  • Analyst price target for ORLY is US$1,109, which is 14% above our fair value estimate

How far off is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:ORLY) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for O'Reilly Automotive

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$2.07b US$2.59b US$2.67b US$2.81b US$3.03b US$3.16b US$3.28b US$3.39b US$3.49b US$3.59b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x7 Analyst x7 Analyst x5 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.39% Est @ 3.76% Est @ 3.32% Est @ 3.01% Est @ 2.79%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% US$1.9k US$2.2k US$2.2k US$2.1k US$2.1k US$2.1k US$2.0k US$1.9k US$1.9k US$1.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$20b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.6b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.3%) = US$74b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$74b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$37b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$57b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$1.1k, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
NasdaqGS:ORLY Discounted Cash Flow February 28th 2024

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at O'Reilly Automotive as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.074. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for O'Reilly Automotive

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Threat
  • Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For O'Reilly Automotive, there are three important items you should consider:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for O'Reilly Automotive (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does ORLY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether O'Reilly Automotive is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.