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UDR (UDR): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Decline and Investor Sentiment Shift

Reviewed by Kshitija Bhandaru
See our latest analysis for UDR.
UDR’s momentum has softened lately, with a 1-month share price return of -6.93% and a year-to-date slide of -16.04%. Although the 1-year total shareholder return is down -15.12%, the three- and five-year figures show the company still delivered positive long-term gains. This highlights why many investors are keeping watch for a potential turnaround or improved sentiment from here.
If you’re interested in expanding your perspective beyond real estate, now is the perfect time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
With UDR trading below analyst price targets and its intrinsic value, the key question for investors is whether current prices offer a compelling entry point or if future growth is already fully reflected in the market.
Most Popular Narrative: 17.9% Undervalued
UDR’s most widely followed narrative puts fair value at $43.48, noticeably above the latest close of $35.71. This gap has caught the attention of many investors, who are eager to understand the rationale and catalysts backing such a premium valuation.
Urban migration patterns, combined with better-than-expected job and wage growth in core coastal cities like San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and D.C., are supporting ongoing high occupancy and high renewal rent growth. These factors could enhance UDR's top-line revenue and minimize downside risk.
Curious how surging rents and city migration data play into this bold price target? Dive in to discover the real profit trajectory and the surprising element analysts are factoring in to set such an ambitious valuation.
Result: Fair Value of $43.48 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, if supply remains elevated in key Sunbelt markets or regulatory changes cap rent growth, UDR’s upside case could falter.
Find out about the key risks to this UDR narrative.
Another View: What Do the Multiples Say?
While analyst models lean toward a bullish fair value, looking at UDR’s price-to-earnings ratio paints a less optimistic picture. With the company trading at 93.1x, this is much higher than both the industry average of 19.7x and the peer average of 35.4x. The fair ratio stands at 37.8x, which implies UDR is richly valued by this measure. This creates valuation risk if the market shifts toward sector norms.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Build Your Own UDR Narrative
If these perspectives don't quite match your own or you want to see the numbers firsthand, it takes just a few minutes to analyze the data and shape your own view. Do it your way.
A great starting point for your UDR research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NYSE:UDR
UDR
UDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate properties in targeted U.S.
6 star dividend payer and fair value.
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