NYSE:AVB

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

US$29.6b

Last Updated

2021/06/24 03:44 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Established dividend payer with acceptable track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has AvalonBay Communities's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: AVB is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 2% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AVB's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.4%

AVB

-0.4%

US REITs

0.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

40.3%

AVB

33.5%

US REITs

42.6%

US Market

Return vs Industry: AVB exceeded the US REITs industry which returned 33.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AVB underperformed the US Market which returned 42.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

AVBIndustryMarket
7 Day1.4%-0.4%0.5%
30 Day4.6%4.1%1.9%
90 Day13.5%13.1%7.9%
1 Year46.0%40.3%38.0%33.5%44.9%42.6%
3 Year39.3%25.4%43.9%27.7%64.4%54.1%
5 Year40.2%19.4%51.5%22.3%128.3%102.7%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is AvalonBay Communities's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is AvalonBay Communities undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

6.3%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AVB ($211.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($227.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVB is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AVB is good value based on its PE Ratio (37x) compared to the US REITs industry average (46.8x).

PE vs Market: AVB is poor value based on its PE Ratio (37x) compared to the US market (19.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AVB is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (8.8x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AVB is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.8x) compared to the US REITs industry average (1.9x).


Future Growth

How is AvalonBay Communities forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

4.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AVB's forecast earnings growth (4.2% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: AVB's earnings (4.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AVB's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AVB's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AVB's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AVB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.2%).


Past Performance

How has AvalonBay Communities performed over the past 5 years?

-2.9%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AVB has a large one-off gain of $365.1M impacting its March 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: AVB's current net profit margins (35.6%) are higher than last year (33%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AVB's earnings have declined by 2.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AVB's earnings growth over the past year (2.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-2.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AVB earnings growth over the past year (2.4%) exceeded the REITs industry -10.7%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: AVB's Return on Equity (7.5%) is considered low.


Financial Health

How is AvalonBay Communities's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AVB's short term assets ($456.4M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($674.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: AVB's short term assets ($456.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($7.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AVB's debt to equity ratio (70.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AVB's debt to equity ratio has increased from 66% to 70.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AVB's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16.1%).

Interest Coverage: AVB's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.1x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is AvalonBay Communities's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.99%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

TodayJun 24 2021Ex Dividend DateJun 29 2021Dividend Pay DateJul 15 202116 days from Ex DividendBuy in the next 5 days to receive the upcoming dividend

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AVB's dividend (3.01%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.3%).

High Dividend: AVB's dividend (3.01%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.46%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AVB's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AVB's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: At its current payout ratio (78.5%), AVB's payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: AVB's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (78% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tim Naughton (59 yo)

9.42yrs

Tenure

US$11,294,333

Compensation

Mr. Timothy J. Naughton, also known as Tim, has been the Chief Executive Officer of AvalonBay Communities Inc. since January 1, 2012 and was its President since February 23, 2015 until January 2021. Mr. Na...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tim's total compensation ($USD11.29M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD11.28M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tim's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AVB's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.1 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: AVB's board of directors are considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: AVB insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

AvalonBay Communities, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
  • Ticker: AVB
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1978
  • Industry: Residential REITs
  • Sector: Real Estate
  • Implied Market Cap: US$29.647b
  • Market Cap: US$29.646b
  • Shares outstanding: 139.38m
  • Website: https://www.avalonbay.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
  • 4040 Wilson Boulevard
  • Suite 1000
  • Arlington
  • Virginia
  • 22203
  • United States

Listings


Biography

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/06/24 03:44
End of Day Share Price2021/06/23 00:00
Earnings2021/03/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.