AvalonBay Communities Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
AvalonBay Communities has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 2.4%, while the Residential REITs industry saw earnings growing at 2.3% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 6.5% per year. AvalonBay Communities's return on equity is 9.8%, and it has net margins of 37.2%.
Key information
2.42%
Earnings growth rate
1.96%
EPS growth rate
| Residential REITs Industry Growth | 11.06% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.51% |
| Return on equity | 9.80% |
| Net Margin | 37.20% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Apr 30
AvalonBay Communities Is Capitalizing On Valuation Gaps
Summary AvalonBay earns a Buy rating, capitalizing on persistent public-private valuation gaps in multifamily real estate. AVB’s aggressive share repurchases, funded by selling older assets, enhance earnings and streamline the portfolio for future growth. Development focus remains on high-quality, supply-constrained coastal markets, with new projects targeting stabilized yields of 6.5%-7%. Recent Q1 results outperformed expectations, with Core FFO of $2.83 and improving fundamentals as supply pressures begin to ease. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 26
AVB: 2026 Buybacks And Dividend Increases Will Support Leasing Recovery Potential
Narrative Update on AvalonBay Communities The analyst price target for AvalonBay Communities has shifted modestly lower, with the updated fair value moving from about $194.35 to $193.55 as analysts adjust models for near term earnings, sector wide residential REIT estimate changes, and softer occupancy commentary across U.S. multifamily markets. Analyst Commentary Recent research around AvalonBay Communities highlights a mix of caution on near term fundamentals and continued support for the longer term apartment REIT thesis.Narrative Update • Apr 11
AVB: 2026 Coastal Apartments And Buybacks Will Support Q4 Leasing Recovery Potential
The updated analyst price target for AvalonBay Communities edges slightly lower to $194.35 from $195.05, as analysts factor in revised Q4 earnings and 2026 guidance assumptions, modestly higher discount rates, and sector wide adjustments to multifamily REIT estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AvalonBay Communities clusters around updated models for Q4 results and 2026 guidance, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they refresh sector views on multifamily REITs. Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts maintaining Overweight views see room for value in apartments relative to other REIT categories, citing apartments, storage, and single family rentals as areas with stronger perceived upside into 2026 compared with segments such as cold storage and retail.Narrative Update • Mar 28
AVB: 2026 Coastal Apartments And Buybacks Will Support Renewed Sector Upside
AvalonBay Communities' analyst fair value estimate has been nudged lower by about $1 to $195, as analysts factor in more moderate revenue growth, slightly higher discount rates, and broadly reduced sector price targets despite some upward revisions from a few firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on AvalonBay Communities shows a split picture.Narrative Update • Mar 13
AVB: 2026 Coastal Apartments And Buybacks May Support Renewed Sector Upside
AvalonBay Communities' analyst price targets have edged slightly lower, with our fair value estimate easing by about $2 to $196, as analysts trim growth and margin expectations and reset sector assumptions for U.S. multifamily REITs. Analyst Commentary Street research on AvalonBay Communities has recently centered on recalibrating price targets and expectations for the wider U.S. multifamily REIT sector, rather than on company specific surprises. Targets have generally shifted within a relatively tight band around the high US$190s, reflecting a mix of cautious and constructive views on valuation, execution, and sector level growth drivers.Narrative Update • Feb 26
AVB: 2026 Coastal Apartments And Buybacks May Support Measured Upside
The updated analyst price target for AvalonBay Communities has shifted modestly as mixed recent revisions, including several cuts of $2 to $7 alongside a smaller $1 increase, reflect analysts balancing slightly adjusted growth and margin assumptions with sector-wide views on apartments and broader REITs. Analyst Commentary Recent research on AvalonBay Communities points to a split view, with some analysts nudging targets higher and others trimming them. They are reassessing apartment REIT valuations, the 2026 outlook, and relative positioning versus other property types.Narrative Update • Feb 12
AVB: 2026 Coastal Apartments And Capital Returns May Support Measured Upside
The updated analyst price target for AvalonBay Communities reflects a modest adjustment of about $1, as analysts balance mixed target moves across firms along with revised assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, margins, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a split view on AvalonBay Communities, with some firms nudging price targets higher and others trimming them.Narrative Update • Jan 27
AVB: Share Repurchases Will Support 2026 Coastal Apartment Turnaround Potential
Analysts have edged their blended price target for AvalonBay Communities slightly lower to about US$200 from roughly US$203, citing more cautious assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples following a series of modest target trims across recent REIT sector reviews. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of bullish and bearish views on AvalonBay Communities, with adjustments to price targets reflecting shifting expectations around fundamentals into 2026.Narrative Update • Jan 11
AVB: Share Repurchases And 2026 REIT Turnaround Expectations Will Support Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on AvalonBay Communities by a few dollars, with recent cuts to about $190 to $197 reflecting softer leasing trends and higher operating expenses, even as they continue to highlight the potential for REITs to benefit from improving macro conditions into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on AvalonBay Communities point to a mixed setup, with modestly lower price targets clustered around the low to high $190s and a consistent message of Neutral or similar ratings.Narrative Update • Dec 24
AVB: Share Repurchases Will Support Returns As Leasing Headwinds Eventually Ease
AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has inched lower by approximately $0.40 to about $203.40, as analysts weigh faster than expected leasing spread deterioration, softer apartment fundamentals into 2026, and mixed operating expense performance against still constructive long term residential REIT trends. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain divided on AvalonBay Communities, balancing near term operational softness against a still constructive longer term outlook for residential REITs. Recent price target changes reflect this push and pull between execution risk and valuation support.Narrative Update • Dec 10
AVB: Share Repurchase Program Will Support Returns Despite Softer Leasing Spreads
AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has been nudged lower to about $204 from roughly $206, as analysts factor in faster than expected leasing spread deterioration, softer apartment fundamentals into 2026, modestly weaker margin and growth assumptions, and a slightly higher future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed but slightly more cautious stance on AvalonBay Communities, with pricing targets shifting both higher and lower as analysts recalibrate expectations for earnings growth and operating performance into 2026.Narrative Update • Nov 26
AVB: Share Repurchase Program Will Drive Returns Amid Sector Headwinds
AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has decreased by approximately $3.31 to $205.88, as analysts cite weaker-than-anticipated leasing spreads, rising operating expenses, and ongoing headwinds for the multifamily REIT sector. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates reflect a mix of cautious and optimistic sentiment surrounding AvalonBay Communities, with price targets both reduced and slightly raised in light of earnings performance and projected sector dynamics.Narrative Update • Nov 11
AVB: Upcoming $2.9 Billion Development Pipeline Will Drive Future Upside
AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has been revised downward from $216.48 to $209.19. Analysts point to weakening leasing spreads, higher operating expenses, and tempered earnings outlooks amid challenging sector fundamentals.Narrative Update • Oct 28
Upper-Tier Apartment Developments Will Shape Returns Amid Sector Rotation Risks
AvalonBay Communities’ analyst price target saw a slight decrease of $0.95 to $216.48 as analysts weighed recent upgrades and downgrades, along with updated earnings growth expectations and ongoing development activity. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity for AvalonBay Communities has shown a range of perspectives, reflecting both optimism and caution regarding the company's outlook and market performance.Narrative Update • Oct 13
Undersupplied US Apartments Will Prosper Despite Regulatory And Market Risks
AvalonBay Communities' analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $219.65 to $217.43 per share. This change reflects analysts' tempered expectations for profit margins and revenue growth following recent sector reviews.Narrative Update • Sep 05
Undersupplied US Apartments Will Prosper Despite Regulatory And Market Risks
Analysts maintain a positive outlook on AvalonBay’s robust growth pipeline, favorable market positioning, and prospective sector rotation benefits, but given valuation now aligns with peers after recent underperformance, the consensus price target remains unchanged at $219.65. Analyst Commentary Increased confidence in AvalonBay’s “best in class” earnings growth, supported by a significant $2.9B development pipeline expected to contribute meaningfully to future results.Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
AvalonBay Communities: A Good Portfolio Anchor For A Turbulent Market
Summary AvalonBay is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainty, with a strong balance sheet, broad diversification, and operating in a resilient industry. The company benefits from competitive advantages like scale and standardized processes, leading to higher yields and significant development experience. AvalonBay's financials are robust, with strong credit ratings, and a solid dividend yield, supported by strategic portfolio optimization. While tariffs and higher unemployment pose risks, AvalonBay's strong balance sheet and expertise enable it to capitalize on market opportunities during downturns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 09
AvalonBay Communities: Buy And Sleep Tight
Summary AvalonBay Communities offers "sleep well at night" qualities through a strong balance sheet and strategic focus on suburban markets with limited new supply. AVB's operational efficiencies and robust development pipeline, supported by pre-funded equity, position it for sustained growth and attractive deal terms. The stock's forward P/FFO of 19.3 is below its historical average, making it reasonably attractive despite not being a deep bargain. With a 3.1% dividend yield, strong credit ratings, and very safe leverage, AVB is ideal for conservative income investors seeking potential for steady total returns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 22
AvalonBay Stock: 6 Reasons Why I'm Skeptical Of The Price
Summary We are currently maintaining our hold recommendation for AvalonBay. Our fair value estimate for the stock ranges from $210.36 to $219.73. AVB offers a potential total return of 5.26% as compared to 5.17% for their fixed-income instrument. The 9 bps premium for the equity is insufficient compensation in our view. In evaluating the apartment REIT sector dividend yield as compared to single-A corporate bond effective yield, we also see signs that the sector may be overvalued. The spread between the apartment sector cap rates and the US 10-year Treasury paints a similar picture that the stock does not offer a margin of safety. Finally, our view is also corroborated by their forward equity issuance activity and closed transactions in Q3. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 24
AvalonBay: Balanced Hold Despite Potential Cap Rate Reductions
Summary AvalonBay's stock dropped significantly during the rate hike cycle but soared when rate cut expectations began in November. Strong occupancy rates and rising net operating income highlight AvalonBay's robust performance, supported by macro trends like delayed family formation and cheaper rent versus mortgage payments. With the stock price being just 11% away from all-time highs, the dividend yield is considerably lower than its history, making the stock a hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 04
AvalonBay: Limited Upside And Overvalued
Summary AvalonBay owns and manages residential properties, with a focus on the West and East Coast markets. It has low leverage, strong liquidity, and a track record of good past performance. However, the current valuation and the decelerating rental rate growth create an opportunity risk for investors. With a relatively low dividend yield, income investors should also look elsewhere for dividend stock opportunities. That being said, if the price level decreases, this may become a good REIT to hold, so adding AVB to watchlist is a good idea. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 28
AvalonBay: No Margin Of Safety At The Current Price
Summary AvalonBay's NOI growth has been decelerating. They are increasing their exposure to the Sunbelt region to position their portfolio for continued growth. For the business, AvalonBay has the scale, expertise and access to lower cost of debt which should continue to buoy their business in both current and expansion markets. As an investment, AvalonBay's net asset value per share estimate is $178.29, indicating shares are overvalued. There are well reasoned studies that suggest buying REITs at a premium to NAVPS can lead to underperformance. For investors looking for a margin of safety, it may be worthwhile to wait for a better entry. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 02
AvalonBay: Encouraging Rent Trends Make Shares Attractive
Summary AvalonBay Communities' shares have underperformed due to higher rates and a slowdown in the rental market. The company's Q1 results exceeded expectations, as rental trends improved in the Northeast and Seattle, with even the Bay Area stabilizing. AVB is well-positioned for mid-single digit growth this year, with momentum in key markets and a strong pipeline of new projects that are renting at higher rates. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How AvalonBay Communities makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 3,060 | 1,138 | 73 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 3,041 | 1,049 | 73 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 3,014 | 1,166 | 73 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 2,981 | 1,158 | 73 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 2,937 | 1,143 | 73 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 2,913 | 1,080 | 75 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 2,879 | 1,040 | 76 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 2,844 | 840 | 77 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 2,822 | 954 | 76 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 2,776 | 927 | 77 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 2,713 | 926 | 82 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 2,723 | 1,249 | 80 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 2,674 | 1,020 | 83 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 2,609 | 1,135 | 80 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 2,554 | 1,228 | 73 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 2,432 | 813 | 72 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 2,374 | 1,122 | 69 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 2,333 | 1,002 | 70 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 2,275 | 1,008 | 69 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 2,261 | 1,077 | 66 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 2,249 | 800 | 62 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 2,303 | 826 | 58 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 2,348 | 653 | 64 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 2,365 | 784 | 63 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 2,366 | 782 | 67 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 2,327 | 784 | 67 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 2,313 | 1,001 | 62 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 2,300 | 914 | 64 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 2,292 | 1,000 | 61 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 2,289 | 972 | 61 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 2,266 | 824 | 57 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 2,260 | 870 | 53 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 2,221 | 780 | 52 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 2,189 | 874 | 54 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 2,104 | 879 | 49 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 2,048 | 997 | 50 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 2,046 | 1,029 | 48 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 2,052 | 1,031 | 46 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 2,033 | 945 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 2,013 | 795 | 45 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 1,964 | 770 | 44 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,895 | 740 | 43 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 1,815 | 727 | 44 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 1,880 | 762 | 45 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: AVB has a large one-off gain of $467.3M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 31st March, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: AVB's current net profit margins (37.2%) are lower than last year (38.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AVB's earnings have grown by 2.4% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: AVB's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: AVB had negative earnings growth (-0.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Residential REITs industry average (5.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: AVB's Return on Equity (9.8%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/29 21:38 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is covered by 45 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jacob Kilstein | Argus Research Company |
| Andrew Babin | Baird |
| Ross Smotrich | Barclays |