Novavax (NVAX) Is Down 11.9% After Sanofi Takes Over EU Marketing of Nuvaxovid Vaccine

• Sanofi announced it has completed the transfer of European Union marketing authorization for Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, taking on full commercial and regulatory responsibility and triggering a US$25 million milestone payment to Novavax, with eligibility for further milestone and royalty payments under their collaboration and license agreement.
• This development marks a major step in integrating Novavax’s vaccine technology into Sanofi’s commercial pipeline, potentially broadening Novavax’s revenue opportunities through both direct and combination vaccines and expanded adjuvant usage.
• We'll look at how Sanofi's expanded role in commercializing Nuvaxovid may shape Novavax's future revenue streams and investment case.

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Novavax Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Novavax shareholder, you need to believe in the ability of its partnerships, especially with Sanofi, to deliver milestone and royalty-driven revenue through successful commercialization of COVID-19 and combination vaccines. The recent completion of EU marketing authorization transfer to Sanofi is a positive step but does not materially shift the most important short-term catalyst, which remains the achievement of meaningful sales and regulatory progress for combination vaccine products; the biggest risk continues to be potential delays by partners in hitting commercialization milestones, which could pressure revenues and liquidity.

Sanofi’s expanded access to Novavax’s Matrix-M adjuvant in its pandemic influenza vaccine program, announced days prior, is particularly relevant, as it broadens the platform’s reach and aligns with future revenue catalysts, but given this is still in early-stage development, its financial impact may take time to play out. Combination product approvals and robust execution by partners like Sanofi remain central to reducing Novavax’s revenue concentration risk, making timely milestone deliveries all the more critical.

By contrast, investors should be mindful that even with these new partnerships, the reliance on partners to meet commercial and regulatory targets means...

Read the full narrative on Novavax (it's free!)

Novavax's outlook anticipates $348.5 million in revenue and $55.9 million in earnings by 2028. This reflects a 31.4% annual revenue decline and a decrease in earnings of $366.9 million from current earnings of $422.8 million.

Uncover how Novavax's forecasts yield a $12.50 fair value, a 50% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen individuals in the Simply Wall St Community offer fair value estimates for Novavax ranging from US$2.47 to US$220 per share. With so many different outlooks, you can see how much investor expectations depend on future milestones and royalty streams being realized through partner commercialization efforts.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Novavax - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Novavax Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Novavax research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Novavax's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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