Moderna (MRNA) Stock Overview
A biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for MRNA from our risk checks.
MRNA Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$175
FV
68.7% undervalued intrinsic discount974
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Moderna, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$54.82 |
| 52 Week High | US$85.60 |
| 52 Week Low | US$22.28 |
| Beta | 0.94 |
| 1 Month Change | -24.39% |
| 3 Month Change | 20.83% |
| 1 Year Change | 98.59% |
| 3 Year Change | -49.33% |
| 5 Year Change | -86.75% |
| Change since IPO | 194.73% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • 13h
Moderna Q2: Weak Revenue, Strong Pipeline - Here's What Matters Now
Summary Moderna is navigating a post-COVID transition, shifting focus to a diversified vaccine and therapeutics pipeline amid weak current demand. MRNA guides for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 but remains deeply loss-making with heavy reliance on future pipeline catalysts and product launches. The recent Phase 3 norovirus vaccine setback highlights execution risk, reinforcing that valuation and sentiment hinge on pipeline progress, not near-term earnings. I maintain a Hold rating as the market discounts near-term volatility, with premium valuation reflecting long-duration optionality and sensitivity to clinical outcomes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 27
MRNA: Flu Revenue Delays And Regulatory Timing Will Constrain Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Moderna stock from $22.00 to $25.00, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, and future P/E multiples in light of a series of higher Street price targets and supportive commentary on the company's vaccine pipeline. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage of Moderna shows a mix of optimism around the vaccine portfolio and caution around execution, timing of revenues, and valuation.Narrative Update • Jul 13
MRNA: Flu Approval Uncertainty And Delayed Vaccine Revenues Will Restrain Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Moderna to $22.00, citing a series of recently higher Street price targets that reflect increased attention on upcoming vaccine catalysts, sector momentum, and company specific earnings drivers. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna reflects a mix of optimism around the vaccine pipeline and caution around execution, earnings visibility, and valuation.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • 13h
Moderna Q2: Weak Revenue, Strong Pipeline - Here's What Matters Now
Summary Moderna is navigating a post-COVID transition, shifting focus to a diversified vaccine and therapeutics pipeline amid weak current demand. MRNA guides for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 but remains deeply loss-making with heavy reliance on future pipeline catalysts and product launches. The recent Phase 3 norovirus vaccine setback highlights execution risk, reinforcing that valuation and sentiment hinge on pipeline progress, not near-term earnings. I maintain a Hold rating as the market discounts near-term volatility, with premium valuation reflecting long-duration optionality and sensitivity to clinical outcomes. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jul 27
MRNA: Flu Revenue Delays And Regulatory Timing Will Constrain Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Moderna stock from $22.00 to $25.00, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, and future P/E multiples in light of a series of higher Street price targets and supportive commentary on the company's vaccine pipeline. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage of Moderna shows a mix of optimism around the vaccine portfolio and caution around execution, timing of revenues, and valuation.Narrative Update • Jul 13
MRNA: Flu Approval Uncertainty And Delayed Vaccine Revenues Will Restrain Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Moderna to $22.00, citing a series of recently higher Street price targets that reflect increased attention on upcoming vaccine catalysts, sector momentum, and company specific earnings drivers. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna reflects a mix of optimism around the vaccine pipeline and caution around execution, earnings visibility, and valuation.
Narrative Update • Jun 29
MRNA: Flu Approval Progress Will Still Limit Long Term Upside
Moderna's updated analyst price target framework reflects a modest fair value adjustment to about $44.25 per share, along with higher modeled revenue growth and profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple, as analysts factor in supportive regulatory commentary on the mRNA flu program and incremental optimism around the broader vaccine pipeline. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Moderna highlights a mix of optimism tied to the mRNA flu and broader vaccine pipeline, and caution around timing, clinical data gaps, and execution risk.Analysis Article • Jun 21
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Could Be 39% Overvalued After FDA Flu Vaccine Backing
Moderna (MRNA) is back in focus after a unanimous FDA advisory panel vote that its investigational mRNA flu vaccine, mFlusiva, has a favorable benefit risk profile in adults 50 and older. See our latest analysis for Moderna. Moderna’s recent regulatory win has arrived after a sharp rebound in the stock, with a 1-year total shareholder return of 146.95% and a year to date share price return of 107.26%, while the 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns remain significantly lower. This suggests...Narrative Update • Jun 15
MRNA: Flu Review And Pipeline Execution Risk Are Expected To Restrain Upside
Moderna's updated analyst price target edges higher, with the model fair value moving from $21.00 to about $21.09 as analysts factor in slightly stronger revenue growth expectations and potential upside from norovirus vaccine penetration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna clusters around cautious optimism, with several firms adjusting price targets while still highlighting meaningful risks tied to execution and future growth drivers, especially in vaccines beyond Covid.Narrative Update • Jun 01
MRNA: Flu Review And Litigation Overhang Will Continue To Restrain Upside
Analysts raised Moderna’s fair value estimate from $12.00 to $21.00, citing a series of higher Street price targets and updated assumptions for margins, litigation risk, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Moderna has centered on two themes: valuation reset after the litigation settlement and differing views on how much residual legal and execution risk still matters for the stock.
Narrative Update • May 13
MRNA: Future Upside Will Depend On Upcoming Flu Vaccine Authorization Outcome
Narrative Update on Moderna Analysts have collectively raised their Moderna price targets by low to mid single digit dollar amounts, citing updated models that reflect recent litigation settlements, FDA progress on the flu vaccine, and oncology pipeline developments. Together, these factors support a lower fair value estimate of $66.29, a slightly higher discount rate of 7.21%, adjusted revenue growth expectations of 52.59%, a profit margin of 4.12%, and a future P/E assumption of 107.40x.Narrative Update • Apr 27
MRNA: Litigation Tail And Uncertain Flu Path Will Limit Long-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted the implied fair value estimate for Moderna shares by about $7, citing a reset in litigation risk following the Arbutus and Genevant settlement and refreshed expectations for the flu and broader vaccine pipeline that flow through to higher modeled revenue growth and a richer future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has been active, with several firms revisiting their models after the Arbutus and Genevant settlement, the Q4 earnings update, and the FDA's decision to review the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine.Narrative Update • Apr 13
MRNA: Flu Review Uncertainty And Legal Tail Risk Will Constrain Upside
Analysts have nudged Moderna's average price target higher by $5, reflecting a mix of renewed confidence in the company's vaccine pipeline after the FDA's reconsideration of its flu shot application and reduced litigation overhang following recent settlement developments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Moderna clusters around two main themes for you to watch closely: valuation reset around the vaccine pipeline and lingering legal and execution risks tied to the COVID and flu franchises.Narrative Update • Mar 30
MRNA: Litigation Deal And Flu Review Path Will Limit Future Upside
Analyst price targets for Moderna have generally shifted higher, with several firms moving into a $30 to $69 range as they factor in the recent Arbutus settlement, the FDA’s renewed review of the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine with an August 5 PDUFA date, and updated product and oncology pipeline assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna currently reflects a mixed but generally cautious stance, even as litigation and regulatory headlines have reduced some overhangs.Narrative Update • Mar 16
MRNA: Litigation Settlement And Flu Setback Will Constrain Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed Moderna's implied fair value from $15.00 to $12.00 as they factor in a higher discount rate, more moderate profit margins and updated views on revenue growth following recent litigation settlements and regulatory updates. Analyst Commentary Street research around Moderna centers on two themes that matter for you as an investor: the clean-up of legal overhangs and how much confidence to place in the broader vaccine and oncology pipeline.Narrative Update • Mar 02
MRNA: Future Upside Will Hinge On Upcoming Flu Vaccine Approval Decision
Our fair value estimate for Moderna has inched up by about $1.65 per share to $91.97 as analysts update their models around higher projected product sales, a more constructive FDA review path for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine with an August 5 PDUFA date, and refreshed views on the broader late stage pipeline including oncology. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has leaned more constructive around the updated regulatory path for flu vaccine mRNA-1010, the broader late stage pipeline, and recent quarterly disclosures.Analysis Article • Feb 17
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$40.90
As you might know, Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong...Narrative Update • Feb 16
MRNA: Future Upside Will Depend On Vaccine Pipeline Execution Outcomes
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Moderna higher by about $3, reflecting updated views on long term revenue potential, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple following recent research on COVID demand, the broader vaccine pipeline and legal outcomes. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna highlights a mix of caution and growing optimism, with several bullish analysts adjusting their models after company updates, legal developments and new financing disclosures.Analysis Article • Feb 02
Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 43%
Despite an already strong run, Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 43% in the...Narrative Update • Feb 01
MRNA: Cancer Vaccine Risk And Vaccine Backlash Will Restrain Long-Term Upside
The analyst price target for Moderna has increased by about $2 to $38.80, as analysts incorporate updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, modestly better profit margins, a marginally lower discount rate, and a slightly reduced future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna shows a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing concern.Narrative Update • Jan 18
MRNA: Late Stage Vaccine Outcomes Will Define Future Upside Potential
Narrative update We trim our analyst price target for Moderna from about US$121 to roughly US$87 as analysts factor in lower profit margin expectations, a higher discount rate, cautious views on COVID-related revenue visibility, and a more binary risk profile around key late stage vaccine data, even as some models reflect higher revenue growth assumptions and updated financing terms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna points to a mixed backdrop, with several firms reaffirming cautious stances while still recognizing specific areas where execution and funding choices could support long term value creation.Narrative Update • Jan 04
MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Debt And Litigation
Analysts have modestly lifted their price targets on Moderna, with recent revisions such as $15 to $18, $16 to $17, and $32 to $30. These changes collectively reflect slightly improved conviction in the company’s long term revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and strengthened liquidity following new Ares financing, despite ongoing profitability and litigation risks.Narrative Update • Dec 21
MRNA: Oncology Advances And Buyout Optionality Will Offset Debt And Litigation Risks
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Moderna to align with a slightly higher fair value estimate of about $36.75, citing incremental improvements in long term revenue growth and profitability assumptions supported by recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, revised 2026 to 2028 guidance, and Ares financing. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a cautious but incrementally more constructive stance toward Moderna, with several firms refining their models following Investor and Analyst Day presentations and the announcement of new financing.Analysis Article • Dec 19
There's No Escaping Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Muted Revenues Despite A 28% Share Price Rise
Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last...Narrative Update • Dec 07
MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Progress Will Drive Long Term Upside Despite Litigation Risk
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Moderna to about $35.78 from $37.32 per share, reflecting slightly softer long term growth and valuation assumptions. This comes even as recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, new debt financing and evolving oncology data support a more stable cash outlook and gradual margin improvement.Narrative Update • Nov 23
MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Advances Will Drive Renewed Optimism Despite Regulatory Shifts
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Moderna down from approximately $40.30 to $37.32. They cited the company’s updated revenue growth projections and cost outlook, despite improvements in profit margins and continued progress across its commercial and research pipelines.Narrative Update • Nov 07
MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Renewed Optimism Amid Regulatory Uncertainties
Moderna's analyst price target was reduced from $18 to $15, as analysts pointed to lower US vaccination trends and ongoing regulatory uncertainties that are impacting the outlook for its vaccine franchises. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst notes have reflected both cautious and optimistic perspectives on Moderna's outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 23
Oncology Advancements And Evolving Policy Will Shape Recovery Amid Regulatory Shifts
Moderna’s analyst price target has been revised downward from $44.25 to $40.30. Analysts cite lower projected revenue growth along with persistent regulatory and profitability challenges, which have been reflected in recent industry commentary.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Pipeline Diversification And Regulatory Momentum Will Unlock Future Potential
Moderna’s consensus price target was held at $44.25 as analysts cited declining US vaccine demand, increased regulatory hurdles for flu/COVID combinations, delayed UK deliveries impacting 2025 guidance, and persistent uncertainty around mRNA vaccine approvals. Analyst Commentary Lowered US vaccination trends for both COVID and flu are reducing addressable market expectations for Moderna’s vaccines.New Narrative • May 02
MODERNA (MRNA): WALLSTREET THREW IT OUT - I’LL PICK IT UP AND CASH THE CHECK
Despite the defunding of US governmental research and health services, Moderna remains in a commanding fundamental position. The company that made its name during the COVID-19 pandemic developing andSeeking Alpha • Apr 22
More Downside For Moderna Before The Breakthrough
Summary Moderna's respiratory vaccine sales are not encouraging, and competition is strong, making it difficult to gain market share and sustain revenue. The product pipeline is promising but requires investor patience, with key vaccines in Phase 3 trials but regulatory approvals potentially years away. Financials are sound enough to support long term research, with a significant cash buffer, but oncology research faces regulatory and technical challenges. Shares are likely to go down before any uptrend (2-3 years horizon). Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 31
FDA Shake-Up Rocks Moderna Stock As Regulatory Risks Mount (Downgrade)
Summary Moderna's stock dropped over 10% after the FDA's Dr. Peter Marks resigned, signaling potential increased regulatory scrutiny on vaccines. Moderna's financial health remains strong, with ~$9 billion in cash and investments, but the stock is down 65% since my August rating downgrade. Despite pipeline progress, regulatory uncertainty and intense competition from Pfizer and GSK pose significant risks to Moderna's revenue outlook. Given the negative public perception of mRNA technology and regulatory risks, I downgrade MRNA to "Hold" until more clarity emerges. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 06
Moderna: Patent Litigation Win Masks Underperformance, Unlikely To Pay Out
Summary Moderna, Inc.'s stock surged 16% yesterday after a German court ruled Pfizer and BioNTech may have violated Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine patent, potentially leading to compensation. Despite the ruling, Pfizer and BioNTech will appeal, while previous court decisions have invalidated related patents, complicating Moderna's legal victory. MRNA's business struggles post-pandemic, with declining revenues and few new products, have made litigation a potentially critical revenue source, which I'd call a red flag. The ongoing legal battles resemble other prolonged patent disputes, highlighting the challenges in monetizing groundbreaking technologies like mRNA and CRISPR. If Moderna had released ten products since 2022, instead of one, it's unlikely yesterday's news would have moved its share price, but this reflects the new reality of messenger-RNA, a technology that hasn't lived up to the hype — yet. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 14
Moderna, Inc.: Working Hard But Competition Is Working Harder
Summary MRNA's stock surged 4,211% during COVID-19 but has since plummeted to $31, reflecting a significant bubble and raising concerns about its future. Declining revenue and net income, driven by reduced COVID-19 vaccine demand and RSV market challenges, highlight MRNA's financial instability. MRNA's competitive landscape, particularly against Pfizer, and higher forward P/S ratio suggest the stock is overvalued and faces tough competition. Despite negative financials, technical analysis indicates potential support at $28-30, justifying a "hold" position rather than a "sell.". Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Feb 09
Vaccine Expansion Plans Could Shape Future Despite Market Challenges And Legal Risks
Strategic product innovation in combining vaccines could enhance long-term revenue streams and international market positioning.Seeking Alpha • Feb 03
Moderna: The Good News Isn't Enough
Summary I initially rated Moderna as a SELL in mid-December, and despite a recent rally, the stock remains volatile. The news flow has been great in January, which mostly caused a rally in the stock. I argue why I don't think anything has changed materially, reinforcing my SELL rating. Despite cost-cutting measures, I am concerned that reducing R&D will hurt Moderna's research capabilities, preferring cuts in SG&A instead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 10
Moderna: Can They Benefit From Bird Flu? (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Moderna's stock is down 36.63% due to poor COVID-19 vaccine sales and lack of promising alternatives, but bird flu presents asymmetric upside potential. The company's cost-cutting measures may hinder innovation, but rising COVID cases and bird flu risks could uniquely benefit Moderna if a pandemic occurs. Moderna's bird flu vaccine development, supported by a U.S. government grant, could be a game changer if the bird flu spreads significantly. With only a 5% chance of a bird flu pandemic, I believe Moderna is a hold, awaiting further developments on the bird flu's virality. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 31
Moderna: 2025 Contrarian Play
Summary Moderna ends 2024 as one of the worst-performing Nasdaq-100 stocks, but it presents a contrarian play for 2025 due to vaccine catalysts. The stock is down to $40 with a $15 billion market cap, despite having $3+ billion in revenue and a promising pipeline. Moderna's spending issue is a concern, but the potential of its CMV and cancer vaccines could significantly boost sales and justify current R&D expenses. Investors should consider buying the beaten-down stock around $40, anticipating higher sales and multiple big approvals in the coming years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 18
Moderna: Cutting Costs Might Not Be Enough
Summary Moderna, a leader in mRNA medicine, developed one of the earliest COVID-19 vaccines, with Spikevax being its first commercial product. The company's mRNA platform enables the development of therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and autoimmune diseases. MRNA has struggled in the post-COVID era, making its capacity to generate free cash flows doubtful. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MRNA | US Biotechs | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 1.4% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1Y | 98.6% | 31.1% | 19.1% |
Return vs Industry: MRNA exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned 31.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MRNA exceeded the US Market which returned 19.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MRNA volatility | |
|---|---|
| MRNA Average Weekly Movement | 10.8% |
| Biotechs Industry Average Movement | 10.0% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: MRNA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MRNA's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4,700 | Stéphane Bancel | www.modernatx.com |
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company’s respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis.
Moderna, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| MRNA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$22.98b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$3.19b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$2.23b |
9.8x
P/S Ratio-6.8x
P/E RatioIs MRNA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MRNA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$0 |
| Cost of Revenue | US$0 |
| Gross Profit | US$0 |
| Other Expenses | US$0 |
| Earnings | US$0 |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -8.05 |
| Gross Margin | -69.89% |
| Net Profit Margin | -143.55% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 8.0% |
How did MRNA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/31 04:03 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/31 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Moderna, Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Eliana Merle | Barclays |
| Huidong Wang | Barclays |