Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Moderna’s consensus price target was held at $44.25 as analysts cited declining US vaccine demand, increased regulatory hurdles for flu/COVID combinations, delayed UK deliveries impacting 2025 guidance, and persistent uncertainty around mRNA vaccine approvals.
Analyst Commentary
- Lowered US vaccination trends for both COVID and flu are reducing addressable market expectations for Moderna’s vaccines.
- Bearish analysts cite the need for standalone mRNA flu vaccine approvals prior to any potential COVID/Flu combo vaccine, increasing development and regulatory complexity.
- Regulatory uncertainty and a lack of clarity on the FDA’s evolving position towards mRNA vaccines are contributing to negative sentiment.
- Delayed vaccine deliveries, particularly a shift in timing for the UK market, prompted reduced 2025 revenue guidance.
- Modest Q2 revenue beat was driven entirely by COVID revenues, with oncology partnership advances seen as neutral for current forecasts.
What's in the News
- The Trump administration and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reportedly plan to remove COVID vaccines, including Moderna’s, from the U.S. market within months (Daily Beast).
- The FDA is considering revoking Pfizer’s COVID vaccine authorization for children under 5, while Moderna’s vaccine remains approved for children under 12 with underlying conditions (Bloomberg).
- A potential breakthrough year for HIV vaccines was hindered as U.S. funding cuts disrupted research and distribution efforts globally, impacting companies such as Moderna (NYT).
- Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is contemplating a review of aluminum-containing vaccines, a move potentially affecting at least two dozen vaccines, including some from Moderna (Bloomberg).
- Moderna remains a key player cited in ongoing regulatory, political, and funding developments affecting vaccine approvals and market access.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Moderna
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $44.25.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Moderna remained effectively unchanged, at 4.6% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Moderna remained effectively unchanged, at 16.06%.
Disclaimer
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