Pharmaceuticals & Biotech U.S. Community

11-NOV-2024 Actual company guidance: 2024: 415 MUSD revenue (S24) and net income 120 MUSD (E24), 2025: 465 MUSD (S25), 165 MUSD net income (E25) Market cap of 5.35 BUSD (P) at 22.62/share: P/S24 = 12.9, P/E24 = 44.6, P/S25 = 11.5 and P/E25 = 32.4) My assumptions: ADMA will be highly profitable due to high ratio of hyperimmunes (maybe eventually they will only manufacture hyperimmunes if S. pneumonia is successful and provided they can source the required amount of hyperimmune plasma).

Key Takeaways Well-diversified drug pipeline with 52 drugs in late-stage approval - a good hedge for its patent expirations Kenvue spin off allows JNJ to focus on its more profitable Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals segments Continued dividend increases and buybacks are affordable and will help capital returns Post Kenvue, I expect JNJ to grow revenues by 7.5% p.a. from its new baseline of $84B, and at higher margins Some risks around litigation, patent expiry and drug success are present Catalysts Robust Drug Pipeline: 52 Drugs Racing To The Finish Line In Late-Stage Approval The key threat to a pharmaceutical stock is the patent expiration of their high value assets. Should a company lack a product pipeline to bolster its future product portfolio, then losing exclusivity to any one drug can be a hit to the business.

Key Takeaways I expect JNJ to remain an established and mature market performer in a relatively stable sector. Some short-term company-related headwinds are cancelled out by long-term industry-related tailwinds Two main risks come from the talc-related litigation issue and patent expiration Most promising revenue growth opportunities are from cancer therapy drugs, with a TAM of $21.6b.

Key Takeaways Expansion in hypoparathyroidism treatment and growth hormone products drives substantial revenue growth, leveraging a robust commercialization strategy. Strategic collaborations and financial strength support ambitious plans, including global product launches and new treatment approvals, fostering long-term growth.

Key Takeaways Optimizing the Engineering segment and strategic shifts towards ready-to-use systems are expected to drive cost savings, improve margins, and boost productivity. Recovery in vial orders and capacity expansion projects aim to enhance revenue and profitability through increased high-value solution offerings.

Key Takeaways Expansion into the Adolescent and Young Adult segment and international markets is expected to drive significant revenue growth. Strategic partnerships and a strengthened leadership team are anticipated to improve operational efficiencies and enhance revenue and margins.

Key Takeaways Expansion into new markets and software enhancement are poised to increase patient base and procedure volumes, driving revenue growth. Integration with Asteria Health and improved supply chain efficiencies are expected to enhance cost efficiencies and net margins.

Key Takeaways Implementation of NOPAIN policy and new J-code could boost EXPAREL access and revenue growth. Strategic partnerships and product development, including ZILRETTA and iovera°, enhance market opportunities and future earnings potential.

Key Takeaways Strong LINZESS demand and apraglutide's market potential could drive future revenue, contingent on stable pricing and regulatory success. Reduced R&D spending and strategic focus on high-potential assets may enhance financial stability and boost future earnings.