AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for MRNA

Moderna’s analyst price target has been revised downward from $44.25 to $40.30. Analysts cite lower projected revenue growth along with persistent regulatory and profitability challenges, which have been reflected in recent industry commentary.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports on Moderna present a mix of optimism and caution, as the company navigates a shifting regulatory and commercial environment. Below, key takeaways from Street research highlight how market watchers are framing the path forward for Moderna’s valuation, execution, and growth prospects.

• Progress within Moderna’s oncology franchise continues, with advancements in early-stage cancer programs and a promising response rate observed in PD-L1+ tumor patients.
• The company’s partnership efforts in individualized neoantigen therapy, especially those focused on mRNA-driven cancer treatments, remain an area of strategic importance and investor focus.
• Potential sector-wide improvements, such as regulatory departures or changes in health policy, could create a more stable and investable environment for vaccine makers like Moderna.
• Recent quarterly revenues surpassed expectations, with COVID vaccine revenues contributing positively to the topline despite trimmed guidance for next year.

• Some analysts remain cautious on Moderna’s near-term path to profitability, citing significant operational and developmental hurdles that have yet to be addressed.
• Ongoing regulatory uncertainties and unclear development strategies for both standalone and combination vaccines are dampening expectations for future approvals and commercial success.
• Lowered growth projections in key vaccine segments, particularly as US vaccination trends for COVID and flu decline, have led to repeated reductions in price targets by several firms.
• The profitability outlook is further challenged by shifting vaccine delivery timelines and persistent questions regarding the commercial sustainability of newer products in the company’s pipeline.

What's in the News

• The CDC's vaccine panel voted to end the universal recommendation for COVID shots, shifting guidance toward individualized decision-making between patients and healthcare providers (Bloomberg).
• The CDC panel also voted against requiring prescriptions for COVID vaccines, maintaining relatively broad access to immunizations (Bloomberg).
• Reports indicate internal division among federal health agencies, with the FDA's vaccine chief overruling staff scientists to narrow COVID vaccine eligibility to those over 65 or at higher risk of severe disease (New York Times).
• Moderna was dropped from the FTSE All-World Index, reflecting changes in its market standing.
• Health officials are compiling data on the effects of COVID shots in pregnant women. There is a push to waive privacy protections to gather more risk data (Wall Street Journal).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $44.25 to $40.30, reflecting a less optimistic outlook on future performance.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly from 6.80% to 6.94%. This suggests a marginally higher risk assessment in future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth estimate has fallen significantly from 4.57% to 2.10%. This underscores reduced expectations for top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has increased from 14.17% to 16.25%. This indicates modest improvement in projected profitability despite slower growth.
• Future P/E ratio forecast has decreased from 43.46x to 37.21x. This points to a lower premium investors are likely to pay for expected earnings.