Could Moderna’s (MRNA) Index Exit Shift Focus From COVID-19 Hurdles to Pipeline Priorities?

• In September 2025, Moderna, Inc. was removed from the FTSE All-World Index and addressed heightened scrutiny surrounding its COVID-19 vaccine during major industry conferences in Philadelphia and Singapore.
• An important implication of the index removal is the potential for forced selling by passive funds and greater investor focus on evolving regulatory and public perception challenges.
• We'll consider how Moderna's departure from a major global equity index could influence the company’s investment outlook and future pipeline priorities.

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Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Moderna shareholder today, you need to believe in the company’s ability to commercialize an expanding mRNA pipeline and to rebuild durable revenue streams beyond COVID-19, despite near-term volatility. The FTSE All-World Index removal may elevate short-term pressure on Moderna’s share price due to required selling by some passive funds, but it does not materially shift the central catalyst: successful development and adoption of new non-COVID products. The largest risk remains ongoing revenue volatility from COVID-19 vaccine demand and increased public and regulatory scrutiny.

Amid the turbulence, Moderna’s announcement of the first fully Canada-manufactured COVID-19 vaccine doses marks a milestone for both its supply chain and public health partnerships. This development may help support near-term sentiment as the company works to offset declining global COVID-19 vaccine sales and win broader acceptance of its next-generation mRNA therapeutics.

In contrast, the increased regulatory and public scrutiny around vaccine safety, a risk investors should be aware of as continued reports emerge on ...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's outlook anticipates $3.5 billion in revenue and $498.6 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 4.6% annual growth rate in revenue and a $3.4 billion increase in earnings from the current -$2.9 billion.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $44.25 fair value, a 75% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span US$44.25 to US$186.49, with 26 unique viewpoints informing the range. While many see potential upside, the greatest uncertainty now centers on whether Moderna’s broad pipeline can counteract sharp declines in COVID-19 vaccine revenues.

Explore 26 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth over 7x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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