Match Group, Inc. Just Recorded A 8.6% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.7% to US$29.82 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Match Group reported US$860m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.44 beat expectations, being 8.6% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Match Group

After the latest results, the 25 analysts covering Match Group are now predicting revenues of US$3.56b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 14% to US$2.13 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.18 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$42.16, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Match Group at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So although Match Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Match Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Match Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$42.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Match Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Match Group you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.