How Hello Group’s Slower China Results And Happn-Fueled Overseas Push At Hello Group (MOMO) Has Changed Its Investment Story

• Hello Group Inc. reported past third-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of CNY 2,650.12 million and net income of CNY 348.89 million, both slightly lower than a year earlier, and guided for fourth-quarter 2025 revenue to decline modestly year over year.
• The company’s domestic weakness linked to tax and regulatory pressures contrasted with very large overseas growth and the acquisition of European dating app Happn, underscoring a shift toward international expansion to diversify revenue.
• We’ll now examine how the domestic slowdown and rapid overseas expansion, highlighted by the Happn acquisition, affect Hello Group’s investment narrative.

The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.

Hello Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own Hello Group, you need to believe that its push outside China can offset domestic headwinds from taxes, regulation and softer Momo and Tantan trends. The latest results slightly weaken the near term earnings catalyst by showing lower net income and guiding to a modest Q4 revenue decline, while reinforcing the key risk that domestic regulatory and tax pressures can drag on profitability.

The Q4 2025 revenue guidance of CNY 2.52 billion to CNY 2.62 billion, implying up to a 4.4% year over year decline, is the clearest near term reference point for that risk. It links the domestic slowdown and higher compliance burden directly to expected revenue pressure, even as overseas revenue rises rapidly through products like Soulchill and Happn.

Yet behind the overseas growth story, investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Hello Group (it's free!)

Hello Group's narrative projects CN¥11.2 billion revenue and CN¥1.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 2.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decline of about CN¥0.2 billion from CN¥1.4 billion today.

Uncover how Hello Group's forecasts yield a $9.68 fair value, a 43% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Hello Group span from US$5.48 to US$9.68 per share, highlighting very different views on upside. You can compare those against the recent guidance that points to slightly weaker near term revenue as domestic regulatory costs weigh on margins and overseas expansion ramps up.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Hello Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 43% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Hello Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hello Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hello Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hello Group's overall financial health at a glance.

Want Some Alternatives?

Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:

• Outshine the giants: these 26 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.
• These 11 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.
• Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com