| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
BMBL Stock Overview
Bumble Inc. provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally.
Bumble Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$34.49 |
| 52 Week High | US$61.05 |
| 52 Week Low | US$15.41 |
| Beta | 0 |
| 1 Month Change | 2.62% |
| 3 Month Change | 54.25% |
| 1 Year Change | -27.65% |
| 3 Year Change | n/a |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | -50.95% |
Recent News & Updates
Bumble Reaches Operating Breakeven But Growth Risks Rise
Bumble went public in February 2021, raising approximately $2.15 billion in an IPO. The firm operates popular dating apps worldwide. BMBL has reached operating breakeven but faces recession uncertainties which may slow its topline revenue growth, so I'm on Hold in the near term. A Quick Take On Bumble Bumble Inc. (BMBL) went public in February 2021, raising approximately $2.15 billion in an IPO that priced at $43.00 per share. The firm operates social networking and dating apps for individuals in numerous countries. I’m concerned about the effects of a general growth slowdown or outright recession in major countries in which the firm operates. So, I’m on Hold for BMBL for the near term, but like its recent progress in reaching operating breakeven. Bumble Overview Austin, Texas-based Bumble was founded to develop the Bumble and Badoo apps for dating, networking and expanding personal relationships for individuals worldwide. The firm's business model is a "freemium" model, whereby the apps are initially free to use, but a subset of users pays a subscription and also makes in-app purchases for premium features. Management is headed by founder and Chief Executive Officer Whitney Wolfe Herd, who was previously co-founder of Tinder, a dating application. The firm markets its mobile apps via major mobile app platforms, social media, online advertising and word of mouth. The Bumble app was designed to encourage women to 'make the first move' to connect with other members. Bumble’s Market & Competition According to a 2019 market research report, the global dating services market was an estimated $6.7 billion in 2018 and is forecast to reach nearly $10 billion by 2026. This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.2% from 2019 to 2026. The main drivers for this expected growth are the increasing usage of online media for personal requirements and improving technologies and convenience by new dating services and apps. However, the industry contends with continued fake account generation and spam activity, reducing trust among genuine users. Major competitive or other industry participants include: Grindr Love Group Global Eharmony The Meet Group Spice of Life Match Group (MTCH) Spark Networks Zoosk Other smaller players Bumble’s Recent Financial Performance Total revenue by quarter has grown steadily in recent quarters: 5 Quarter Total Revenue (Seeking Alpha) Gross profit by quarter has also grown and begun to plateau: 5 Quarter Gross Profit (Seeking Alpha) Selling, G&A expenses as a percentage of total revenue by quarter have trended slightly lower: 5 Quarter Selling, G&A % Of Revenue (Seeking Alpha) Operating income by quarter has turned slightly positive: 5 Quarter Operating Income (Seeking Alpha) Earnings per share (Diluted) have also turned positive in the most recent quarter after three negative quarters prior: 5 Quarter Earnings Per Share (Seeking Alpha) In the past 12 months, BMBL’s stock price has dropped 39.5 percent vs. the U.S. S&P 500 index’ fall of around 11.9 percent, as the chart below indicates: 52 Week Stock Price (Seeking Alpha) Valuation Metrics For Bumble Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company: Measure Amount Market Capitalization $5,930,000,000 Enterprise Value $5,390,000,000 Price / Sales [TTM] 5.01 Enterprise Value / Sales [TTM] 5.76 Operating Cash Flow [TTM] $169,780,000 Revenue Growth Rate [TTM] 27.20% CapEx Ratio 10.68 Earnings Per Share -$0.15 (Source - Seeking Alpha) As a reference, a relevant partial public comparable would be Match Group; shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics: Metric Match Group Bumble Variance Price / Sales [TTM] 6.64 5.01 -24.5% Enterprise Value / Sales [TTM] 7.56 5.76 -23.8% Operating Cash Flow [TTM] $1,040,000,000 $169,780,000 -83.7% Revenue Growth Rate 23.9% 27.2% 14.0% (Source - Seeking Alpha) Commentary On Bumble In its last earnings call (Source - Seeking Alpha), covering Q1 2022’s results, management highlighted the addition of 134,000 paying subscribers in the quarter, with the Bumble app now exceeding 3 million users. The company decided to discontinue its Russia operations during the quarter. Its Badoo App experienced a 4% revenue decrease during the quarter. The App has a significant presence in Central and Eastern Europe and the Russia discontinuation combined with removing the paywall in Ukraine contributed to the revenue drop.
Is It Time To Swipe Right On Bumble?
Bumble is one of the most popular dating apps in North America. The company is mission-driven, and this has helped to grow users and revenues rapidly. Having gone public in February 2021, shares have since fallen 60% from their post-IPO highs. After this share price drop, does Bumble look like an attractive investment? Investment Thesis Bumble Inc. (BMBL) is a mission-driven, founder-led dating app company that takes a completely new approach to the world of dating. Its female-centric approach is a huge differentiator between itself and the competition, and this has caused a buzz about Bumble - propelling it to more than 40 million users. But does that make the company a good investment right now? I put it through my framework to find out. Business Overview Bumble is an online dating company which operates three apps: Bumble, Badoo, and Fruitz (acquired in February 2022). The Badoo App was first launched in 2006 and pioneered free-to-use dating products, but the main story for this company is with the Bumble App. Launched in 2014, Bumble is a dating app with ~1.8 million paying users where women make the first move. Both apps operate freemium business models, where users can pay for a subscription in order to access premium features such as rematching with a prior expired match, seeing who has swiped to match with them, or having the ability to swipe privately so other users can’t see which way you swiped. For me, a big attraction to Bumble as an investment is the fact that it’s a true mission driven company, with an aim to "create a world where all relationships are healthy and equitable." Just take a quick read of the opening paragraphs from Bumble’s 2021 annual report: Bumble app was founded because we noticed two different, yet related issues in our society: antiquated gender norms, and a lack of kindness and accountability on the internet. We observed that women were often treated unequally in society, especially in romantic relationships. At the same time, social networks created possibilities for connections, but they were focused on connections with people you already know and lacked guardrails to encourage better behavior online. We created Bumble app to change this. The Bumble brand was built with women at the center—where women make the first move. Our platform is designed to be safe and empowering for women, and, in turn, provides a better environment for everyone. We are leveraging innovative technology solutions to create a more inclusive, safe and accountable way to connect online for all users regardless of gender. This is a business that knows what it stands for, and it has helped turn Bumble into a leading female-centric global brand. This mission also opens the door to plenty of optionality, as Bumble looks to utilize its brand to empower women in all walks of life: love, friendships, careers and beyond. As mentioned, the company had two main apps before its recent acquisition of Fruitz – Badoo and Bumble. Whilst Badoo may have a lot more users (approximately 300 million), it actually has substantially fewer paying users, and its growth is trending in the wrong direction. Bumble Q1'22 Investor Presentation In Q1 alone, it lost 106,000 users QoQ – although more than half of this decline was driven by issues with Russia. Either way, if you’re investing in Bumble, it certainly isn’t because of the Badoo App – just look at how revenue growth for the Bumble App has outpaced Badoo. Bumble Q1'22 Investor Presentation The story here is undeniably all about the Bumble App and the Bumble brand. It is using this brand to expand into new offerings such as Bumble BFF (where users can find a match to make friendship connections) and Bumble Bizz (made for networking). Bumble Economic Moats With every business, I look to see if there are any durable competitive advantages (aka economic moats) that will help the company continue to thrive whilst protecting itself from competition. One of the main economic moats that Bumble benefits from is the network effect, which is no surprise for a platform like this. It is the leading female-centric dating app, and has a growing user base – and more people means more potential matches, so if I’m going to sign up for a dating app, I’ll want to go where most people are, which then increases the number of people on that app – and this is a virtuous cycle that has helped Bumble to grow to its current level. As we can see below, Bumble is already one of the most popular dating apps in North America, only behind Match Group's (NASDAQ:MTCH) biggest app, Tinder. You’ll notice Badoo there as well, but this company is extraordinarily bad at monetizing its users. App Annie Intelligence The other clear economic moat is the company’s brand, which has helped it to grow so quickly. The brand is synonymous with female-empowered dating, and the company is trying to utilize this brand to grow elsewhere. Another interesting economic moat is counter-positioning, which is when a business model is so different from competitors that it would harm a competitor if they adopted it. Bumble unapologetically made its app focused on ensuring that women have the best dating experience possible, giving them the power to make the first move. A company such as Tinder might risk losing a substantial number of users if they made this change, and so they wouldn’t want to risk it. The result is a dating app that is top-of-mind for women, and this competitive advantage goes hand-in-hand with the Bumble brand. Outlook According to Grand View Research, the Global Online Dating Market size in 2021 was $3.97 billion, and is projected to grow at a 6.9% CAGR from 2022 to 2028, eventually reaching a size of $5.78 billion. This growth is meant to be slightly faster in Bumble’s core U.S. market, growing at 7.1%. Grand View Research Bumble’s revenues in 2021 were $766 million, which translates to ~19% of the current global online dating market (per Grand View Research). Whilst this is already a big portion of the market, its main competitor Match Group had 2021 revenues of $2,983m, representing ~75% of the global market. So 19% might not necessarily imply loads of future growth, but for Bumble it’s all about stealing some market share from Match Group. Let’s also remember that Bumble is attempting to diversify away from the online dating market – if it can do this successfully, then its total addressable market will increase substantially. Management I always aim to find founder-led businesses where inside ownership is high, and I’m happy to have this in Bumble and its Founder & CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd. She became the youngest self-made female billionaire after Bumble went public in February 2021 (although after the share price drop, this is no longer the case). She actually co-founded Tinder, the Match Group-owned dating app that transformed the world of dating, prior to a well-publicized fallout after Wolfe Herd sued Tinder for sexual harassment in 2014. Whitney Wolfe Herd (Bumble) I want to invest in companies where leadership has skin-in-the-game, and we get this here with Bumble & Wolfe Herd, as she owns 13.6% of all shares in Bumble. Bumble 2022 Proxy Statement / Excel I also like to take a quick look on Glassdoor to get an idea about the culture of a company, and Bumble gets some pretty good scores from the 457 reviews left by employees. Any score over 4.0 is impressive, and Bumble obtains this in quite a few categories – with particularly high scores in compensation and benefits. These scores are all strong, but it’s worth highlighting that the overall company ranking at the start of 2021 was 4.6, whereas it has since dropped down to 4.1. Scores do remain high, but it looks like the past 12 months have seen some internal struggles with Bumble, and this is just something to watch out for. Glassdoor Financials There are some things to like & others to dislike when we take a look at Bumble’s financial trends. Revenue growth was hit in 2020 due to the pandemic, but started to recover as the world reopened in 2021. All in all, revenue growth over the past three years has achieved a pretty good CAGR of 28.6%. The company also generates strong gross profit margins above 70%, and achieved positive EBIT in 2019 and 2020, with IPO-associated stock-based compensation costs moving EBIT back into the red in 2021. Bumble SEC Filings / Excel I’m not a big fan of the company’s balance sheet, as they have substantially more debt than cash. This means that they are less financially nimble, and might struggle to weather difficult times, or might not have the capital to take advantage of opportunities. Yet I don’t think the business itself is at risk, since both operating and free cash flows are positive, and have been for quite some time. Bumble Q1'22 Investor Presentation Revenue growth in Q1 was strong, with the Bumble App continuing to drive revenue growth forward (with 38% YoY growth). It’s also worth highlighting the increase in ARPPU (or average revenue per paying user) by 14%. This is important, as it means users are spending even more on Bumble’s apps. Valuation As with all high growth companies, valuation is tough. I believe that my approach will give me an idea about whether Bumble is insanely overvalued or undervalued, but valuation is the final thing I look at - the quality of the business itself is far more important in the long run. Bumble SEC Filings / Excel I have assumed revenue growth for 2022 in line with the midpoint of Bumble’s most recent guidance, with an assumption for a slowdown in revenue growth (since Bumble already has a high market share, and the market is growing at only ~7%). I do think this is a conservative assumption, as the Bumble App becoming a greater percentage of overall revenue could boost growth, and similarly Bumble’s avenues outside of dating could also result in additional top-line growth. I’ve assumed a FCF margin expansion as Bumble continues to grow and benefit from scale – it’s worth highlighting that Match Group, the best well-established proxy, saw FCF margins of 27.9% in 2021.
Bumble: Risk/Reward Skewed To Downside
Bumble is a leading social media company with a focus on online dating and social networking. The company operates Badoo, Bumble, and Fruitz. With an MAU of more than 40 million, Bumble is arguably the biggest competitor to Tinder. From 2018 to 2021, Bumble has grown at a 3-year CAGR of >25%, with revenues increasing from $360 million in 2018 to $765 million in 2021. Going forward, analyst consensus sees the company’s 5-year growth at 16.7% CAGR. I value Bumble based on a residual earnings framework and calculate a fair share price of $22.45/share.
Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Ideally, a business will show two...
Shareholder Returns
| BMBL | US Interactive Media and Services | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 1Y | -27.6% | -29.2% | -11.6% |
Return vs Industry: BMBL exceeded the US Interactive Media and Services industry which returned -31.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: BMBL underperformed the US Market which returned -13.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| BMBL volatility | |
|---|---|
| BMBL Average Weekly Movement | 12.8% |
| Interactive Media and Services Industry Average Movement | 10.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 17.0% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: BMBL is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 13% a week.
Volatility Over Time: BMBL's weekly volatility (13%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 900 | Whitney Herd | https://bumble.com |
Bumble Inc. provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally. It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases dating products. The company operates two apps, Bumble and Badoo with approximately 40 million users on monthly basis, as well as Fruitz, an online dating app.
Bumble Fundamentals Summary
| BMBL fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$7.01b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$835.00k |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$806.15m |
5,356x
P/E Ratio5.5x
P/S RatioIs BMBL overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| BMBL income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$806.15m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$218.87m |
| Gross Profit | US$587.27m |
| Other Expenses | US$586.44m |
| Earnings | US$835.00k |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Aug 10, 2022
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.0064 |
| Gross Margin | 72.85% |
| Net Profit Margin | 0.10% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 24.8% |
How did BMBL perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is BMBL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMBL?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is BMBL's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$7.01b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 7x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 54.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 110.2x |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does BMBL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| BMBL PS Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 7.6x | ||
IAC IAC/InterActiveCorp | 1.4x | 10.5% | US$6.6b |
BZ Kanzhun | 13.8x | 32.7% | US$9.5b |
GETY Getty Images Holdings | 10.9x | 5.2% | US$10.1b |
ATHM Autohome | 4.5x | 7.2% | US$4.4b |
BMBL Bumble | 5.5x | 18.8% | US$7.0b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BMBL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.5x) compared to the peer average (7.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does BMBL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Interactive Media and Services Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BMBL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.5x) compared to the US Interactive Media and Services industry average (1.9x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is BMBL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 5.5x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 4.9x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BMBL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.9x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of BMBL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: BMBL ($34.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($51.15)
Significantly Below Fair Value: BMBL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
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Future Growth
How is Bumble forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?
Future Growth Score
4/6Future Growth Score 4/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
48.6%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: BMBL's forecast earnings growth (48.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: BMBL's earnings (48.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: BMBL's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: BMBL's revenue (18.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: BMBL's revenue (18.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: BMBL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.3%).
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Past Performance
How has Bumble performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
2/6Past Performance Score 2/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
51.4%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: BMBL has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: BMBL's current net profit margins (0.1%) are lower than last year (22.9%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: BMBL's earnings have grown significantly by 51.4% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: BMBL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: BMBL had negative earnings growth (-99.4%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Interactive Media and Services industry average (-6.9%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: BMBL's Return on Equity (-0.5%) is considered low.
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Financial Health
How is Bumble's financial position?
Financial Health Score
3/6Financial Health Score 3/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: BMBL's short term assets ($413.8M) exceed its short term liabilities ($166.2M).
Long Term Liabilities: BMBL's short term assets ($413.8M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.1B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: BMBL's net debt to equity ratio (12.5%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if BMBL's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: BMBL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (27.3%).
Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if BMBL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is Bumble current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BMBL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BMBL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BMBL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BMBL's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: BMBL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BMBL has not reported any payouts.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
1.8yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Whitney Herd (32 yo)
8.58yrs
Tenure
US$1,125,200
Compensation
Ms. Whitney Wolfe Herd serves as Brand Partner at Amplo Management, L.L.C. She is a Founder of Bumble Inc. in 2014 and has been its Chief Executive Officer and Director since January 2020. Prior to Bumble,...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Whitney's total compensation ($USD1.13M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.36M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Whitney's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: BMBL's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Board Members
Experienced Board: BMBL's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.1%.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Bumble Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Bumble Inc.
- Ticker: BMBL
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 2014
- Industry: Interactive Media and Services
- Sector: Media
- Implied Market Cap: US$7.011b
- Market Cap: US$4.467b
- Shares outstanding: 202.04m
- Website: https://bumble.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Bumble Inc.
- 1105 West 41st Street
- Austin
- Texas
- 78756
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/08/10 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/08/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.