Bumble Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The investors in Bumble Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BMBL) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 22% to US$5.68 in the week following its quarterly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$247m, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.13 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Bumble. View them for free.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 17 analysts covering Bumble is for revenues of US$953.6m in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 9.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Bumble is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.95 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$978.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.51 in 2025. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the great increase in to the earnings per share numbers.

View our latest analysis for Bumble

The consensus price target fell 5.5% to US$5.48, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Bumble, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$9.00 and the most bearish at US$4.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Bumble's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.9% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Bumble's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Bumble's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Bumble's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Bumble analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Bumble that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.