Results: Bumble Inc. Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

Shareholders of Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 10% to US$25.09 following its latest full-year results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.62 per share on revenues of US$904m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bumble

After the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Bumble are now predicting revenues of US$1.06b in 2023. If met, this would reflect a solid 17% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Bumble forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.26 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.24 in 2023. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$27.44, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Bumble analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Bumble'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 is roughly in line with the 21% annual revenue growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that Bumble is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Bumble's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$27.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Bumble. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bumble going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Bumble's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.