Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI): Evaluating Valuation Following Share Structure Changes and Profitability Milestone

Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI) has been in the spotlight after reducing its Class Y shares and increasing Class Z shares. This move reflects ongoing adjustments to streamline its equity structure and strengthen market positioning.

See our latest analysis for Bilibili.

Bilibili’s latest share structure changes come after a breakout year, with the stock’s year-to-date share price return up over 55% and a 1-year total shareholder return of nearly 17%. Strong revenue growth, recent profitability milestones, and bullish technical trends have fueled renewed optimism. However, the recent 9% daily drop reflects how quickly sentiment can shift as investors weigh both growth potential and rising short-term risks.

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But with shares surging and valuation metrics stretched, do these changes mark a rare chance to buy into Bilibili before more growth is realized? Or has the market already factored in the company’s brighter outlook?

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Undervalued

With Bilibili’s fair value set at $28.11, just above the last close of $26.60, the narrative signals modest upside ahead and intensifies debate over the bullish assumptions backing this number.

Rapid adoption of AI technologies such as recommendation algorithms, content discovery, and AIGC-generated ad creatives is improving operational efficiency and advertising effectiveness, as evidenced by a 10% lift in eCPM and 20%+ ad revenue growth. This should drive further margin expansion and positive earnings surprises.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to uncover the math behind this optimistic projection? This widely followed narrative hinges on aggressive upgrades to profitability and a confidence boost from future profit margins. Which assumption is doing the heavy lifting? Dive in to see which bold forecast shapes the entire fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $28.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing game revenue and shifting Gen Z preferences could quickly undermine these bullish assumptions if momentum or user growth falters.

Find out about the key risks to this Bilibili narrative.

Build Your Own Bilibili Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own interpretation in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Bilibili research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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