Market Still Lacking Some Conviction On Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX)

Ternium S.A.'s (NYSE:TX) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.1x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 34x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Ternium has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for Ternium

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Ternium.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Ternium's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 51%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 52% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the nine analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 27% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Ternium's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Ternium currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the positive outlook. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ternium (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Ternium. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com