Can Mixed Fundamentals Have A Negative Impact on Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC) Current Share Price Momentum?

Commercial Metals' (NYSE:CMC) stock is up by a considerable 23% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Specifically, we decided to study Commercial Metals' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Commercial Metals is:

0.9% = US$37m ÷ US$4.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to May 2025).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.01 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Commercial Metals

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Commercial Metals' Earnings Growth And 0.9% ROE

It is hard to argue that Commercial Metals' ROE is much good in and of itself. Even when compared to the industry average of 12%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Hence, the flat earnings seen by Commercial Metals over the past five years could probably be the result of it having a lower ROE.

We then compared Commercial Metals' net income growth with the industry and found that the average industry growth rate was 11% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Commercial Metals is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Commercial Metals Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Commercial Metals' low three-year median payout ratio of 9.7%, (meaning the company retains90% of profits) should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see higher growth than it has reported.

Moreover, Commercial Metals has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 16% over the next three years. However, Commercial Metals' future ROE is expected to rise to 9.9% despite the expected increase in the company's payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Commercial Metals can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.