Are Robust Financials Driving The Recent Rally In CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:CF) Stock?

CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 12% over the last three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Specifically, we decided to study CF Industries Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for CF Industries Holdings is:

22% = US$1.8b ÷ US$8.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.22 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

CF Industries Holdings' Earnings Growth And 22% ROE

To begin with, CF Industries Holdings seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 12%. Probably as a result of this, CF Industries Holdings was able to see an impressive net income growth of 46% over the last five years. However, there could also be other causes behind this growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared CF Industries Holdings' net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 13% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if CF Industries Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is CF Industries Holdings Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

CF Industries Holdings' three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 16%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 84% of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Besides, CF Industries Holdings has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 26% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 17%) over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that CF Industries Holdings' performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.