Power Deal and Capacity Restart Might Change the Case for Investing in Century Aluminum (CENX)

• Century Aluminum announced it has extended its power agreement with South Carolina’s Santee Cooper to secure reliable electricity for its Mt. Holly smelter through 2031, enabling a US$50 million investment to restart idle capacity and add 50,000 metric tons of production, with over 100 new jobs expected as the plant returns to full operations for the first time since 2015.
• This agreement reduces operational uncertainty at Mt. Holly and is expected to deliver a significant economic boost to South Carolina, with full plant activity projected to contribute around US$900 million annually to the state’s economy according to a 2024 University of South Carolina study.
• We'll explore how securing a long-term power supply catalyzes Century Aluminum's growth outlook and affects its investment narrative.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Century Aluminum, you need to believe that favorable U.S. policy support and tight aluminum markets will sustain strong domestic premiums, making expansion moves like the Mt. Holly restart both timely and profitable. The new power agreement is significant because it addresses Mt. Holly’s largest immediate risk, energy supply and cost, reducing execution risk as the primary near-term catalyst now hinges on delivering the capacity restart on time and within budget.

Among recent announcements, the $400 million senior secured notes offering closed in July 2025 stands out. This move supports Century’s capital programs, including Mt. Holly’s expansion, shortening the path to higher output while helping manage refinancing needs that otherwise could compete for management attention as the company executes its growth plans.

However, investors should also be aware that if U.S. tariffs on aluminum were eased or removed, domestic price advantages could quickly erode and...

Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)

Century Aluminum's outlook anticipates $3.0 billion in revenue and $479.3 million in earnings by 2028. This reflects a 7.6% annual revenue growth rate and a $367.9 million increase in earnings from the current $111.4 million.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $29.00 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Century Aluminum span from US$22.13 to US$88.86, offering both conservative and bullish views. With policy-driven market conditions shaping the company’s results, these diverse perspectives show how much investor outlook can depend on key external factors.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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