The three-year decline in earnings for Citizens NYSE:CIA) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 102% over that period

It's been a soft week for Citizens, Inc. (NYSE:CIA) shares, which are down 11%. But in three years the returns have been great. In fact, the share price is up a full 102% compared to three years ago. To some, the recent share price pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a good run. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.

While the stock has fallen 11% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the last three years, Citizens failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 40% (annualized).

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

Do you think that shareholders are buying for the 2.0% per annum revenue growth trend? We don't. While we don't have an obvious theory to explain the share price rise, a closer look at the data might be enlightening.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Citizens

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Citizens shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 19% over one year. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Citizens you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.