United Fire Group (NasdaqGS:UFCS) - Share price, News & Analysis

UFCS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	2/6

UFCS Stock Overview

United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (10.3x) is below the US market (14.7x)

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 21.8% per year for the next 3 years

Dividend of 1.62% is not well covered by earnings

United Fire Group Competitors

AMERISAFE

NasdaqGS:AMSF

US$989.9m

Employers Holdings

NYSE:EIG

US$1.1b

Safety Insurance Group

NasdaqGS:SAFT

US$1.4b

ProAssurance

NYSE:PRA

US$1.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for United Fire Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$37.12
52 Week High	US$37.26
52 Week Low	US$19.85
Beta	0.084
1 Month Change	17.17%
3 Month Change	21.23%
1 Year Change	35.08%
3 Year Change	-23.40%
5 Year Change	-15.75%
Change since IPO	636.94%

Shareholder Returns

	UFCS	US Insurance	US Market
7D	14.0%	5.5%	6.6%
1Y	35.1%	1.6%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: UFCS exceeded the US Insurance industry which returned 1.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: UFCS exceeded the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is UFCS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
UFCS volatility
UFCS Average Weekly Movement	4.7%
Insurance Industry Average Movement	5.0%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: UFCS is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: UFCS's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1946	1,086	Randy Ramlo	https://www.ufginsurance.com

United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States. The company offers commercial and personal lines of property and casualty insurance; and commercial multiple peril and inland marine insurance, as well as assumed reinsurance products. Its commercial policies include fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers’ compensation, and fidelity and surety coverage; and personal lines comprise automobile, and fire and allied lines coverage, including homeowners.

United Fire Group Fundamentals Summary

How do United Fire Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
UFCS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$932.70m
Earnings (TTM)	US$90.24m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.01b

10.3x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is UFCS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
UFCS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.01b
Cost of Revenue	US$897.62m
Gross Profit	US$112.85m
Other Expenses	US$22.61m
Earnings	US$90.24m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.59
Gross Margin	11.17%
Net Profit Margin	8.93%
Debt/Equity Ratio	6.0%

How did UFCS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.6%

Current Dividend Yield

17%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is UFCS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UFCS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for UFCS. This is calculated by dividing UFCS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is UFCS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$932.70m

UFCS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.3x
PEG Ratio	-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UFCS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

UFCS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for UFCS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.7x
AMSF AMERISAFE	15.5x	-12.0%	US$989.9m
EIG Employers Holdings	12.2x	-18.2%	US$1.1b
SAFT Safety Insurance Group	13.5x	n/a	US$1.4b
PRA ProAssurance	9.5x	-37.1%	US$1.3b
UFCS United Fire Group	10.3x	-21.8%	US$932.7m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UFCS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UFCS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UFCS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (12x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UFCS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UFCS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.3x
Fair PE Ratio	10x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UFCS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UFCS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate UFCS's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate UFCS's fair value for valuation analysis.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: UFCS's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is United Fire Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-21.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: UFCS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-21.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: UFCS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-21.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: UFCS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: UFCS's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: UFCS's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if UFCS's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has United Fire Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-22.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: UFCS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: UFCS became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: UFCS's earnings have declined by 22.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: UFCS has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: UFCS has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Insurance industry (-2.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: UFCS's Return on Equity (10.8%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is United Fire Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: UFCS's short term assets ($617.1M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($2.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: UFCS's short term assets ($617.1M) exceed its long term liabilities ($57.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: UFCS has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if UFCS's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: UFCS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (24%).

Interest Coverage: UFCS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (28.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is United Fire Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.62%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: UFCS's dividend (1.62%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: UFCS's dividend (1.62%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: UFCS's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: UFCS's dividend payments have not increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (16.7%), UFCS's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: UFCS is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Randy Ramlo (60 yo)

15.08yrs

Tenure

US$2,387,206

Compensation

Mr. Randy Allan Ramlo serves as President and Director of United Fire & Casualty Company. Mr. Ramlo has been the President, Principal Executive Officer and Chief Executive Officer of United Fire Group, Inc...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Randy's total compensation ($USD2.39M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.02M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Randy's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: UFCS's management team is considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: UFCS's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 11.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: UFCS insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31