Kenvue Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Kenvue Inc. (NYSE:KVUE) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to US$20.18 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$15b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.3% to hit US$0.54 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Kenvue

Taking into account the latest results, Kenvue's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$15.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 86% to US$1.00. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$15.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.03 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$23.47, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Kenvue's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kenvue at US$26.55 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$21.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kenvue is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kenvue's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 1.7% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Kenvue is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kenvue. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Kenvue analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Kenvue (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.