The three-year underlying earnings growth at J&J Snack Foods (NASDAQ:JJSF) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term J&J Snack Foods Corp. (NASDAQ:JJSF) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 16% in three years, versus a market return of about 26%. In the last ninety days we've seen the share price slide 19%.

Since J&J Snack Foods has shed US$136m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

Check out our latest analysis for J&J Snack Foods

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, J&J Snack Foods actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 8.3% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 8.9% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating J&J Snack Foods further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for J&J Snack Foods the TSR over the last 3 years was -11%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

J&J Snack Foods shareholders are down 6.1% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 9.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before spending more time on J&J Snack Foods it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.