The three-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) shareholders as stock falls 6.7% over the past week

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 07, 2022
NYSE:HGV
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Just take a look at Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV), which is up 54%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 38% (not including dividends).

While the stock has fallen 6.7% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Hilton Grand Vacations

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Hilton Grand Vacations moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:HGV Earnings Per Share Growth May 7th 2022

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Hilton Grand Vacations returned a loss of 1.4% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 8.5%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Hilton Grand Vacations (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Hilton Grand Vacations is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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