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HGV

Hilton Grand Vacations NYSE:HGV Stock Report

Last Price

US$32.89

Market Cap

US$3.9b

7D

-3.2%

1Y

-33.2%

Updated

02 Oct, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
HGV fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance1/6
Financial Health3/6
Dividends0/6

HGV Stock Overview

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand.

Hilton Grand Vacations Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Hilton Grand Vacations
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$32.89
52 Week HighUS$56.33
52 Week LowUS$32.85
Beta1.97
1 Month Change-18.69%
3 Month Change-9.54%
1 Year Change-33.19%
3 Year Change2.33%
5 Year Change-16.08%
Change since IPO25.77%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 08

Hilton Grand Vacations Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Tuesday, August 9th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.88 (+780.0% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $951.37M (+184.8% Y/Y). Over the last 1 year, HGV has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 1 downward.

Jul 21

Hilton Grand Vacations: Upside Potential, But Stock Could Rebound Cautiously

Hilton Grand Vacations has seen an encouraging rebound in memberships and sales of VOIs. Timeshares could see a rise in popularity during the current inflationary period. However, I take the view that investors will look for further evidence of earnings growth before we see the stock rebound significantly. Investment Thesis: While a rebound in memberships and sales of VOIs is encouraging, I take the view that investors will look for further evidence of earnings growth from here before we see bullish momentum behind the stock. In a previous article back in March, I made the argument that Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) could see short-term downside on the basis of inflation concerns and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. However, I also made the argument that the acquisition of Diamond Resorts could provide a significant long-term boost for the company. So far, the stock has continued to show downside: investing.com The purpose of this article is to assess whether Hilton Grand Vacations could see a rebound in upside going forward. Performance and Net Owner Growth From a P/E ratio standpoint, we can see that while earnings per share have started to rebound, the company's P/E ratio still remains slightly higher than that of pre-2020 levels: ycharts.com As a result, investors could be waiting for deeper value before turning bullish on this stock. From a balance sheet standpoint, we can see that net debt has remained constant from that of the last quarter, while cash and cash equivalents are up by just under 20% - which is encouraging as the company is improving its position to meet its short-term debt obligations. Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2022 So far, the Diamond acquisition seems to have aided Net Owner Growth - with Diamond itself having added 1,600 members in the quarter as well as overall member count having increased for the seventh quarter in a row. Excluding the impact of the Diamond acquisition, we see that while Net Owner Growth has continued to rise - the growth (in percentage terms) has slowed from that seen between 2018 and 2019: 2018 and 2019 Net Owner Growth Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2019 2021 and 2022 Net Owner Growth Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2022 From this standpoint, while membership continues to grow - I take the view that investors will increasingly look for a stronger rebound in growth post-COVID. Particularly, with travel almost back to pre-pandemic levels this summer - growth in NOG in the upcoming quarter will be a key telling point as to whether Hilton Grand Vacations is in a good position to capitalize on the rebound in travel demand. Timeshares and Inflation In the current inflationary environment, we could see demand for timeshares increase significantly. The reason for this is that timeshares can allow a member to secure a long-term vacation rental at a fixed cost. While inflation is causing a broad increase in hotel room prices, timeshares can potentially shield longer-term members from such a rise in prices by locking in a fixed-rate upfront - depending on the terms of the timeshare contract. When looking at sales of VOIs (or vacation ownership interests) over the past year, we can see a strong jump in sales compared to that of the same quarter last year: Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2022 From this standpoint - should we continue to see significant growth in VOI sales under an inflationary environment - then we might see a situation where Hilton Grand Vacations sees a rebound in growth despite inflation bringing down the broader market.

Shareholder Returns

HGVUS HospitalityUS Market
7D-3.2%-0.2%-2.5%
1Y-33.2%-34.1%-23.2%

Return vs Industry: HGV matched the US Hospitality industry which returned -34.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HGV underperformed the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is HGV's price volatile compared to industry and market?
HGV volatility
HGV Average Weekly Movement5.5%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement7.3%
Market Average Movement6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: HGV is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HGV's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
199213,000Mark Wanghttps://www.hiltongrandvacations.com

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. It sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests; manages resorts and clubs; operates points-based vacation clubs and resort amenities; and finances and services loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases.

Hilton Grand Vacations Fundamentals Summary

How do Hilton Grand Vacations's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
HGV fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$3.87b
Earnings (TTM)US$298.00m
Revenue (TTM)US$3.23b

13.0x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
HGV income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$3.23b
Cost of RevenueUS$2.00b
Gross ProfitUS$1.15b
Other ExpensesUS$855.00m
EarningsUS$298.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)2.53
Gross Margin35.69%
Net Profit Margin9.22%
Debt/Equity Ratio183.5%

How did HGV perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is HGV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HGV?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HGV key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.5x
PEG Ratio0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HGV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

HGV PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for HGV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide
18.1x18.6%US$4.8b
CHH Choice Hotels International
17.2x-1.8%US$6.1b
WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
15.9x-0.9%US$5.5b
TNL Travel + Leisure
7.9x15.7%US$2.9b
HGV Hilton Grand Vacations
13x26.6%US$3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HGV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (16.9x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HGV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HGV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13x
Fair PE Ratio30.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HGV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HGV ($32.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($99.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HGV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Hilton Grand Vacations forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


26.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HGV's forecast earnings growth (26.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: HGV's earnings (26.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HGV's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: HGV's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HGV's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HGV's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.5%)


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Past Performance

How has Hilton Grand Vacations performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-26.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HGV has a large one-off loss of $163.0M impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: HGV became profitable in the past.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HGV's earnings have declined by 26.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: HGV has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HGV has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (36.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: HGV's Return on Equity (14.3%) is considered low.


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Financial Health

How is Hilton Grand Vacations's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HGV's short term assets ($4.0B) exceed its short term liabilities ($936.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: HGV's short term assets ($4.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HGV's net debt to equity ratio (165.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: HGV's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 398.7% to 183.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HGV's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.9%).

Interest Coverage: HGV's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.3x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Hilton Grand Vacations's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Hilton Grand Vacations Dividend Yield vs Market
How does Hilton Grand Vacations dividend yield compare to the market?
SegmentDividend Yield
Company (Hilton Grand Vacations)n/a
Market Bottom 25% (US)1.7%
Market Top 25% (US)4.7%
Industry Average (Hospitality)2.0%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Hilton Grand Vacations)0%

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate HGV's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate HGV's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HGV's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HGV's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as HGV has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Mark Wang (65 yo)

6.42yrs

Tenure

US$17,455,265

Compensation

Mr. Mark D. Wang has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) since January 3, 2017 & March 2008 respectively. Mr. Wang serves as an Executive Vice President at H...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Mark Wang's Compensation vs Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings
How has Mark Wang's remuneration changed compared to Hilton Grand Vacations's earnings?
DateTotal Comp.SalaryCompany Earnings
Jun 30 2022n/an/a

US$298m

Mar 31 2022n/an/a

US$234m

Dec 31 2021US$17mUS$950k

US$176m

Sep 30 2021n/an/a

-US$53m

Jun 30 2021n/an/a

-US$159m

Mar 31 2021n/an/a

-US$216m

Dec 31 2020US$7mUS$676k

-US$201m

Sep 30 2020n/an/a

US$25m

Jun 30 2020n/an/a

US$82m

Mar 31 2020n/an/a

US$169m

Dec 31 2019US$6mUS$950k

US$216m

Sep 30 2019n/an/a

US$264m

Jun 30 2019n/an/a

US$255m

Mar 31 2019n/an/a

US$323m

Dec 31 2018US$7mUS$1m

US$298m

Sep 30 2018n/an/a

US$361m

Jun 30 2018n/an/a

US$363m

Mar 31 2018n/an/a

US$307m

Dec 31 2017US$6mUS$1m

US$327m

Sep 30 2017n/an/a

US$182m

Jun 30 2017n/an/a

US$174m

Mar 31 2017n/an/a

US$170m

Dec 31 2016US$3mUS$686k

US$168m

Sep 30 2016n/an/a

US$179m

Jun 30 2016n/an/a

US$195m

Mar 31 2016n/an/a

US$188m

Dec 31 2015US$3mUS$692k

US$174m

Compensation vs Market: Mark's total compensation ($USD17.46M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.89M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mark's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: HGV's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: HGV's board of directors are considered experienced (5.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:HGV Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
07 Mar 22BuyUS$249,724David JohnsonIndividual5,150US$48.49
17 Nov 21SellUS$968,874Charles CorbinIndividual18,600US$52.09

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of HGV?
Owner TypeNumber of SharesOwnership Percentage
Individual Insiders822,4520.7%
Hedge Funds7,727,1656.6%
VC/PE Firms36,805,73831.2%
Institutions72,437,21361.5%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 86.59% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
25.74%
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
30,295,825$996.4m0%6.81%
7.07%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
8,323,746$273.8m0.65%0.01%
6.61%
Capital Research and Management Company
7,779,266$255.9m-6.76%0.02%
6.57%
CAS Investment Partners, LLC
7,727,165$254.1m0%42.2%
5.53%
Hill Path Capital LP
6,509,913$214.1m129.81%12.34%
5.27%
BlackRock, Inc.
6,203,791$204.0m-14.84%0.01%
4.52%
AllianceBernstein L.P.
5,317,805$174.9m-11.15%0.08%
4.31%
North Peak Capital Management, LLC
5,069,487$166.7m27.9%18.63%
4.19%
Parsifal Capital Management, LP
4,930,394$162.2m1.81%20.08%
1.98%
Reverence Capital Partners LLC
2,330,447$76.6m0%31.76%
1.82%
FMR LLC
2,143,225$70.5m-47.19%0.01%
1.79%
Franklin Resources, Inc.
2,110,868$69.4m-19.47%0.03%
1.51%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
1,776,905$58.4m1.68%no data
1.27%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
1,497,732$49.3m1.32%0.01%
1.07%
Millennium Management LLC
1,261,303$41.5m121.88%0.06%
0.96%
Northern Trust Global Investments
1,125,732$37.0m-3.14%0.01%
0.87%
Minot Capital, LP
1,021,643$33.6m14.4%7.53%
0.84%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
992,544$32.6m-15.97%0.01%
0.78%
TimesSquare Capital Management, LLC
920,912$30.3m0.7%0.39%
0.78%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
917,693$30.2m3.15%0.01%
0.68%
Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund
799,978$26.3m22.59%0.01%
0.66%
Iridian Asset Management LLC
782,362$25.7m-0.44%2.25%
0.63%
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
744,066$24.5m-4.32%no data
0.61%
Norges Bank Investment Management
716,947$23.6m0%no data
0.52%
KKR Credit Advisors (US) LLC
607,544$20.0m0%4.72%

Company Information

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
  • Ticker: HGV
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1992
  • Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Implied Market Cap: US$3.871b
  • Shares outstanding: 117.69m
  • Website: https://www.hiltongrandvacations.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
  • 6355 MetroWest Boulevard
  • Suite 180
  • Orlando
  • Florida
  • 32835
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
HGVNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesNew Common StockUSUSDDec 2016
HIEDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesNew Common StockDEEURDec 2016

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/10/02 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.