HGV Stock Overview
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand.
Hilton Grand Vacations Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$32.89|
|52 Week High||US$56.33|
|52 Week Low||US$32.85|
|1 Month Change||-18.69%|
|3 Month Change||-9.54%|
|1 Year Change||-33.19%|
|3 Year Change||2.33%|
|5 Year Change||-16.08%|
|Change since IPO||25.77%|
Recent News & Updates
Hilton Grand Vacations Q2 2022 Earnings Preview
Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Tuesday, August 9th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.88 (+780.0% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $951.37M (+184.8% Y/Y). Over the last 1 year, HGV has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 1 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 1 downward.
Hilton Grand Vacations: Upside Potential, But Stock Could Rebound Cautiously
Hilton Grand Vacations has seen an encouraging rebound in memberships and sales of VOIs. Timeshares could see a rise in popularity during the current inflationary period. However, I take the view that investors will look for further evidence of earnings growth before we see the stock rebound significantly. Investment Thesis: While a rebound in memberships and sales of VOIs is encouraging, I take the view that investors will look for further evidence of earnings growth from here before we see bullish momentum behind the stock. In a previous article back in March, I made the argument that Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) could see short-term downside on the basis of inflation concerns and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. However, I also made the argument that the acquisition of Diamond Resorts could provide a significant long-term boost for the company. So far, the stock has continued to show downside: investing.com The purpose of this article is to assess whether Hilton Grand Vacations could see a rebound in upside going forward. Performance and Net Owner Growth From a P/E ratio standpoint, we can see that while earnings per share have started to rebound, the company's P/E ratio still remains slightly higher than that of pre-2020 levels: ycharts.com As a result, investors could be waiting for deeper value before turning bullish on this stock. From a balance sheet standpoint, we can see that net debt has remained constant from that of the last quarter, while cash and cash equivalents are up by just under 20% - which is encouraging as the company is improving its position to meet its short-term debt obligations. Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2022 So far, the Diamond acquisition seems to have aided Net Owner Growth - with Diamond itself having added 1,600 members in the quarter as well as overall member count having increased for the seventh quarter in a row. Excluding the impact of the Diamond acquisition, we see that while Net Owner Growth has continued to rise - the growth (in percentage terms) has slowed from that seen between 2018 and 2019: 2018 and 2019 Net Owner Growth Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2019 2021 and 2022 Net Owner Growth Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2022 From this standpoint, while membership continues to grow - I take the view that investors will increasingly look for a stronger rebound in growth post-COVID. Particularly, with travel almost back to pre-pandemic levels this summer - growth in NOG in the upcoming quarter will be a key telling point as to whether Hilton Grand Vacations is in a good position to capitalize on the rebound in travel demand. Timeshares and Inflation In the current inflationary environment, we could see demand for timeshares increase significantly. The reason for this is that timeshares can allow a member to secure a long-term vacation rental at a fixed cost. While inflation is causing a broad increase in hotel room prices, timeshares can potentially shield longer-term members from such a rise in prices by locking in a fixed-rate upfront - depending on the terms of the timeshare contract. When looking at sales of VOIs (or vacation ownership interests) over the past year, we can see a strong jump in sales compared to that of the same quarter last year: Hilton Grand Vacations: First Quarter Results 2022 From this standpoint - should we continue to see significant growth in VOI sales under an inflationary environment - then we might see a situation where Hilton Grand Vacations sees a rebound in growth despite inflation bringing down the broader market.
|HGV||US Hospitality||US Market|
Return vs Industry: HGV matched the US Hospitality industry which returned -34.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HGV underperformed the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.
|HGV Average Weekly Movement||5.5%|
|Hospitality Industry Average Movement||7.3%|
|Market Average Movement||6.8%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.5%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: HGV is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.
Volatility Over Time: HGV's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells, and manages vacation ownership resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate Sales and Financing, and Resort Operations and Club Management. It sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests; manages resorts and clubs; operates points-based vacation clubs and resort amenities; and finances and services loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases.
Hilton Grand Vacations Fundamentals Summary
|HGV fundamental statistics|
Is HGV overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|HGV income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$2.00b|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||2.53|
|Net Profit Margin||9.22%|
How did HGV perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is HGV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 5/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HGV?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is HGV's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does HGV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
|HGV PE Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PE||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide
CHH Choice Hotels International
WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
TNL Travel + Leisure
HGV Hilton Grand Vacations
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does HGV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (16.9x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is HGV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PE Ratio||13x|
|Fair PE Ratio||30.2x|
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of HGV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: HGV ($32.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($99.62)
Significantly Below Fair Value: HGV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is Hilton Grand Vacations forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?
Future Growth Score4/6
Future Growth Score 4/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: HGV's forecast earnings growth (26.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: HGV's earnings (26.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: HGV's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: HGV's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: HGV's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: HGV's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.5%)
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How has Hilton Grand Vacations performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score1/6
Past Performance Score 1/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: HGV has a large one-off loss of $163.0M impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.
Growing Profit Margin: HGV became profitable in the past.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: HGV's earnings have declined by 26.5% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: HGV has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: HGV has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (36.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: HGV's Return on Equity (14.3%) is considered low.
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How is Hilton Grand Vacations's financial position?
Financial Health Score3/6
Financial Health Score 3/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: HGV's short term assets ($4.0B) exceed its short term liabilities ($936.0M).
Long Term Liabilities: HGV's short term assets ($4.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.1B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: HGV's net debt to equity ratio (165.5%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: HGV's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 398.7% to 183.5% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: HGV's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.9%).
Interest Coverage: HGV's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.3x coverage).
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What is Hilton Grand Vacations's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
|Hilton Grand Vacations Dividend Yield vs Market|
|Company (Hilton Grand Vacations)||n/a|
|Market Bottom 25% (US)||1.7%|
|Market Top 25% (US)||4.7%|
|Industry Average (Hospitality)||2.0%|
|Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Hilton Grand Vacations)||0%|
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate HGV's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate HGV's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HGV's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HGV's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as HGV has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Mark Wang (65 yo)
Mr. Mark D. Wang has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) since January 3, 2017 & March 2008 respectively. Mr. Wang serves as an Executive Vice President at H...
CEO Compensation Analysis
|Mark Wang's Compensation vs Hilton Grand Vacations Earnings|
|Date||Total Comp.||Salary||Company Earnings|
|Jun 30 2022||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2022||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2021||US$17m||US$950k|
|Sep 30 2021||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2021||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2021||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2020||US$7m||US$676k|
|Sep 30 2020||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2020||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2020||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2019||US$6m||US$950k|
|Sep 30 2019||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2019||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2019||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2018||US$7m||US$1m|
|Sep 30 2018||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2018||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2018||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2017||US$6m||US$1m|
|Sep 30 2017||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2017||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2017||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2016||US$3m||US$686k|
|Sep 30 2016||n/a||n/a|
|Jun 30 2016||n/a||n/a|
|Mar 31 2016||n/a||n/a|
|Dec 31 2015||US$3m||US$692k|
Compensation vs Market: Mark's total compensation ($USD17.46M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.89M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Mark's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Experienced Management: HGV's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: HGV's board of directors are considered experienced (5.8 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
|07 Mar 22||BuyUS$249,724||David Johnson||Individual||5,150||US$48.49|
|17 Nov 21||SellUS$968,874||Charles Corbin||Individual||18,600||US$52.09|
|Owner Type||Number of Shares||Ownership Percentage|
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
|Ownership||Name||Shares||Current Value||Change %||Portfolio %|
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
- Ticker: HGV
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 1992
- Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
- Sector: Consumer Services
- Implied Market Cap: US$3.871b
- Shares outstanding: 117.69m
- Website: https://www.hiltongrandvacations.com
Number of Employees
- Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
- 6355 MetroWest Boulevard
- Suite 180
- United States
|Ticker||Exchange||Primary Security||Security Type||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|HGV||NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)||Yes||New Common Stock||US||USD||Dec 2016|
|HIE||DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)||Yes||New Common Stock||DE||EUR||Dec 2016|
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/10/02 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/09/30 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.