Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

NYSE:HGV Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.9b

Hilton Grand Vacations Valuation

Is HGV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HGV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HGV ($39.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($180.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HGV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HGV?

Key metric: As HGV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HGV. This is calculated by dividing HGV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HGV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio41.4x
EarningsUS$95.00m
Market CapUS$3.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HGV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HGV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19x
TNL Travel + Leisure
9x7.8%US$3.5b
VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide
15.8x24.4%US$3.2b
ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings
25.1x25.7%US$4.0b
CHH Choice Hotels International
26x9.4%US$6.5b
HGV Hilton Grand Vacations
41.4x114.6%US$3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HGV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.4x) compared to the peer average (19x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HGV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
HGV 41.4xIndustry Avg. 23.8xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HGV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.4x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HGV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HGV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio41.4x
Fair PE Ratio104.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HGV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (41.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HGV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.92
US$45.00
+12.7%
13.7%US$55.00US$36.00n/a9
Dec ’25US$42.39
US$45.44
+7.2%
16.0%US$55.00US$33.00n/a9
Nov ’25US$37.44
US$43.78
+16.9%
20.4%US$57.00US$31.00n/a9
Oct ’25US$35.79
US$43.78
+22.3%
20.4%US$57.00US$31.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$38.58
US$45.57
+18.1%
20.2%US$57.00US$35.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$41.01
US$57.25
+39.6%
11.0%US$71.00US$49.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$39.20
US$55.29
+41.0%
6.9%US$63.00US$49.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$41.33
US$55.29
+33.8%
6.9%US$63.00US$49.00n/a7
May ’25US$41.72
US$56.44
+35.3%
11.0%US$70.00US$49.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$46.75
US$56.00
+19.8%
10.9%US$70.00US$49.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$45.13
US$53.13
+17.7%
12.2%US$66.00US$41.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$42.11
US$51.86
+23.1%
13.8%US$66.00US$41.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$40.18
US$51.50
+28.2%
16.4%US$66.00US$38.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$36.58
US$48.83
+33.5%
20.7%US$66.00US$38.00US$42.396
Nov ’24US$35.40
US$55.33
+56.3%
15.7%US$73.00US$45.00US$37.446
Oct ’24US$40.70
US$56.83
+39.6%
15.4%US$75.00US$49.00US$35.796
Sep ’24US$44.67
US$57.25
+28.2%
18.3%US$75.00US$49.00US$38.584
Aug ’24US$46.55
US$57.75
+24.1%
18.8%US$76.00US$49.00US$41.014
Jul ’24US$45.44
US$63.20
+39.1%
23.1%US$85.00US$49.00US$39.205
Jun ’24US$44.07
US$63.20
+43.4%
23.1%US$85.00US$49.00US$41.335
May ’24US$43.64
US$63.00
+44.4%
22.9%US$85.00US$49.00US$41.725
Apr ’24US$44.43
US$67.25
+51.4%
19.7%US$85.00US$53.00US$46.754
Mar ’24US$47.57
US$62.25
+30.9%
22.3%US$85.00US$50.00US$45.134
Feb ’24US$47.93
US$66.00
+37.7%
18.6%US$84.00US$50.00US$42.114
Jan ’24US$38.54
US$66.00
+71.3%
18.6%US$84.00US$50.00US$40.184
Dec ’23US$43.85
US$65.75
+49.9%
19.1%US$84.00US$49.00US$36.584

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 08:50
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Brandt MontourBarclays
Dany AsadBofA Global Research