Let me preface this article by admitting my bias: I’m a big fan of Games Workshop. While I’ve never personally gotten into the tabletop game, I’m deeply drawn to the incredible sci-fi and fantasy universes the company has built.
That said, I genuinely believe Games Workshop has enormous upside potential—especially if it can bring its rich storytelling and immersive settings to a broader audience. A useful comparison here is Disney’s acquisition of the Star Wars franchise.
In 2012, Disney acquired Lucasfilm for US$4.05 billion. A quick ChatGPT prompt today estimates that Star Wars is now worth between US$70–100 billion to the Disney business, thanks to a ramp-up in multimedia content across streaming, games, and merchandising. By contrast, Games Workshop’s current market capitalisation sits around US$7.28 billion.
Considering Disney’s sometimes disappointing approach to its iconic sci-fi property, there is now a real opportunity for Games Workshop to carve out market share—especially with its recent partnership with Amazon. If the Secret Level episode based on Space Marine 2 on Prime, or the excellent animations on Warhammer+, are any indication, the company is just getting started. (Strongly recommended viewing, by the way)
While Games Workshop hasn’t yet released a major movie aimed at the general public, a quick search for “40K” or “Warhammer” on social media shows engagement levels that rival Star Wars.
When comparing video games based on Games Workshop's Warhammer universe and those from the Star Wars franchise, several key differences and similarities emerge:
Both franchises have released over 100 titles—Games Workshop since the 1990s, and Star Wars dating back to 1982. In terms of standout titles, Warhammer has found recent success with Total War: Warhammer, Vermintide, and Darktide, while Star Wars boasts enduring hits like Knights of the Old Republic (KOTOR), Battlefront, and Jedi: Survivor.
Financially, Star Wars games have generated an estimated $6–8 billion USD in lifetime revenue, far outpacing Warhammer’s $1.5–2.5 billion USD. However, Warhammer is closing the gap in other ways. Its critical reception has been historically mixed but is improving steadily, whereas Star Wars games tend to vary widely, with a few standouts achieving critical acclaim.
On the commercial front, Total War: Warhammer III sold over 1 million units, which is impressive but still dwarfed by Battlefront (2015) at around 14 million units, and Jedi: Fallen Order at over 10 million units.
Looking ahead, Games Workshop has over 15 titles in development for release in 2024–25, reflecting a broad licensing approach involving a variety of mid-sized developers like Fatshark, Slitherine, and Creative Assembly. In contrast, Star Wars takes a more focused route, relying on big-budget AAA developers like EA and Ubisoft—with major titles like Outlaws and a Jedi: Survivor sequel on the way.
Both franchises have their critical darlings: Mechanicus, Boltgun, Dawn of War, and Darktide for Warhammer; and KOTOR, LEGO Star Wars, and Jedi: Survivor for Star Wars.
Finally, in terms of multiplayer and esports presence, Warhammer remains a niche player (with titles like Blood Bowl and Total War multiplayer), while Star Wars enjoys moderate success with titles like Battlefront and The Old Republic.
As an investor, I see substantial growth potential for Games Workshop in media and entertainment. As a fan, however, I hope they don’t rush it. Still, the core business is already incredibly strong.
The tabletop game commands a global, fiercely loyal (some would say fanatical) customer base. A huge library of novels and comics supports ongoing engagement with the lore, and the company’s IP licensing arm is flourishing. Games Workshop is also actively expanding into Asia and North America.
Financially, the business is impressive. Despite controlling its own model production, it maintains high margins, virtually no debt, an eye-watering ROE of 65% and ROA of 43%, and has averaged 12-17% year-on-year growth over the last five years. Its P/E ratio indicates investor confidence without appearing frothy. Clearly, management is focused on long-term value, not chasing short-term trends—something value investors can appreciate.
Of course, the company isn’t without risks. While the customer base is loyal, it remains a niche hobby subject to trends. The “grimdark” aesthetic Games Workshop helped define is now being emulated by others, reducing its perceived moat.
The company also leans heavily on its creative talent—its modellers, artists, and writers. While this fosters quality and loyalty, it presents vulnerability in a world of rapidly evolving AI and 3D printing. Staying ahead of these technologies will be crucial.
Games Workshop is also famously protective of its IP—so much so that an entire genre of memes pokes fun at its legal aggressiveness. This has upsides and downsides. On one hand, it means the company is unlikely to dilute its brand in pursuit of quick profits. On the other, it creates challenges in negotiating licenses and can slow product timelines. A notable misstep during COVID involved aggressively targeting fan-made films on YouTube—content that was essentially free advertising. Some of those creators were later hired by the company, but the damage to goodwill was real. Still, it presented a buying opportunity to this author.
Games Workshop is an entertainment and gaming business with a long-term vision and defensive posture. It’s growing steadily while protecting the integrity of its worlds and characters—an increasingly rare approach in modern media.
That makes it a compelling candidate for a value investment portfolio. And if the company can successfully capitalise on bringing its incredible stories to a wider audience—especially through Amazon’s platform—it may just chisel away market share from Star Wars and force its bigger rival to lift its game.
For the Emperor.
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Disclaimer
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