U.K. Investing Ideas

Global Weekly Picks

US$65
FV
27.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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UK£14.01
0.09% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
12% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
30x
Price in 2031
UK£20.68
UK£2.08
56.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
34% p.a.
Profit Margin
32%
Future PE
5x
Price in 2031
UK£3.09
UK£12.02
21.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
12% p.a.
Profit Margin
22.49%
Future PE
25x
Price in 2031
UK£16.59
UK£1
71.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
5%
Future PE
31.19x
Price in 2029
UK£1.32
UK£5
82.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
33%
Future PE
25x
Price in 2030
UK£8.54
UK£1.29
1.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
N/A
Profit Margin
28.56%
Future PE
17.56x
Price in 2031
UK£0
UK£31.76
22.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11.01% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.31%
Future PE
34.58x
Price in 2031
UK£48.97
UK£2.25k
99.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
286% p.a.
Profit Margin
15.88%
Future PE
23.62x
Price in 2031
UK£3.32k