Stock Analysis

The total return for Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 10% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. It's fair to say most would be happy with 217% the gain in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.

In light of the stock dropping 6.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

Check out our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, Chipotle Mexican Grill managed to grow its earnings per share at 35% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 26% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:CMG Earnings Per Share Growth February 20th 2025

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Chipotle Mexican Grill's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Advertisement

A Different Perspective

Chipotle Mexican Grill provided a TSR of 4.7% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 26% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Chipotle Mexican Grill is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

We will like Chipotle Mexican Grill better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

New: AI Stock Screener & Alerts

Our new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.

β€’ Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)
β€’ Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying
β€’ High growth Tech and AI Companies

Or build your own from over 50 metrics.

Explore Now for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill

Owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants.

Excellent balance sheet with acceptable track record.

Advertisement

Weekly Picks

WE
WealthAP
PYPL logo
WealthAP on PayPal Holdings Β·

The "Sleeping Giant" Stumbles, Then Wakes Up

Fair Value:US$8229.7% undervalued
60 users have followed this narrative
4 users have commented on this narrative
31 users have liked this narrative
WO
BMBL logo
woodworthfund on Bumble Β·

Swiped Left by Wall Street: The BMBL Rebound Trade

Fair Value:US$961.3% undervalued
19 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
6 users have liked this narrative
WE
WealthAP
DUOL logo
WealthAP on Duolingo Β·

Duolingo (DUOL): Why A 20% Drop Might Be The Entry Point We've Been Waiting For

Fair Value:US$268.6434.2% undervalued
32 users have followed this narrative
5 users have commented on this narrative
8 users have liked this narrative

Updated Narratives

YI
INTU logo
yiannisz on Intuit Β·

Intuit Stock: When Financial Software Becomes the Operating System for Small Business

Fair Value:US$769.8916.0% undervalued
2 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
YI
META logo
yiannisz on Meta Platforms Β·

Meta’s Bold Bet on AI Pays Off

Fair Value:US$723.119.7% undervalued
43 users have followed this narrative
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
YI
HOOD logo
yiannisz on Robinhood Markets Β·

Robinhood Stock: Profitability Arrives, But Can Tokenization and Trading Growth Last?

Fair Value:US$194.6140.8% undervalued
7 users have followed this narrative
1 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Popular Narratives

AG
Agricola
EXN logo
Agricola on Excellon Resources Β·

A case for CA$31.80 (undiluted), aka 8,616% upside from CA$0.37 (an 86 bagger!).

Fair Value:CA$31.898.3% undervalued
71 users have followed this narrative
13 users have commented on this narrative
23 users have liked this narrative
WE
WealthAP
PYPL logo
WealthAP on PayPal Holdings Β·

The "Sleeping Giant" Stumbles, Then Wakes Up

Fair Value:US$8229.7% undervalued
60 users have followed this narrative
4 users have commented on this narrative
31 users have liked this narrative
AL
RKLB logo
AlexLovell on Rocket Lab Β·

Early mover in a fast growing industry. Likely to experience share price volatility as they scale

Fair Value:US$16.25422.2% overvalued
73 users have followed this narrative
1 users have commented on this narrative
18 users have liked this narrative