Stock Analysis

The total return for Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

NYSE:CMG
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 10% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. It's fair to say most would be happy with 217% the gain in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.

In light of the stock dropping 6.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

Check out our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, Chipotle Mexican Grill managed to grow its earnings per share at 35% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 26% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:CMG Earnings Per Share Growth February 20th 2025

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Chipotle Mexican Grill's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Chipotle Mexican Grill provided a TSR of 4.7% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 26% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Chipotle Mexican Grill is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

We will like Chipotle Mexican Grill better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.